Journal of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회지)

Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회)
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The Relationship Study for Major Petrochemical Complexes and Liquid Cargo Ports by the Granger and Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

Granger 및 Toda-Yamamoto 인과 검정을 통한 주요 석유화학단지와 액체화물 항만들의 관계성 연구

  • Lee, Gwamg-Un (Department of Logistics System, Korea Maritime and Ocean University) ;
  • Shin, Chang-Hoon (Department of Logistics System Engineering, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
  • 이광운 (한국해양대학교) ;
  • 신창훈 (한국해양대학교 물류시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2019.11.01
  • Accepted : 2019.12.30
  • Published : 2019.12.31
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Abstract

One of the world's major resources is crude oil, the most fundamental part of the industry. There is no place that does not use crude oil. Petroleum refining products and chemical production industrial products are produced through nearby petrochemical complexes and ports after importing crude oil. There would be a possible relationship among the petrochemical complexes and nearby regional ports working with liquid cargoes. To confirm these relations, Ulsan Port, Daesan Port, and Yeosu Gwangyang Port were selected for this study. A Vector Auto Regressive model using time series data was applied. A Unit Root Test was performed. The relationship was confirmed through the Granger and Toda Yamamoto Causality Test.

세계의 주요 자원중 하나인 원유는 산업의 가장 기초적인 부분을 담당하고 있으며 원유를 통하여 많은 액체화물이 생산되고 있다. 석유화학단지들은 인근의 항만을 통해 원유를 수입후 정제를 통해 석유정제품, 화학생산공업품 등을 생산한다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 주요 석유화학단지와 인근에 위치한 액체화물 항만 간의 관계를 확인하고자 울산항, 대산항, 여수광양항을 선정하였다. 항만물동량 시계열 데이터를 이용한 분석을 실시하였으며 VAR 모형을 이용하였다. 이를 수행하기 위해 단위근 검정을 실시했으며 Granger 및 Toda-Yamamoto 인과 검정을 통하여 관계를 확인하였다.

Keywords

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