Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회 논문집)

The Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회)
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Non-linear Regression Model Between Solar Irradiation and PV Power Generation by Using Gompertz Curve

Gompertz 곡선을 이용한 비선형 일사량-태양광 발전량 회귀 모델

  • Kim, Boyoung (New & Renewable Energy Resource & Policy Center, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Alba, Vilanova Cortezon (Higher Polytechnic School, University of Lleida) ;
  • Kim, Chang Ki (New & Renewable Energy Resource & Policy Center, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Kang, Yong-Heack (New & Renewable Energy Resource & Policy Center, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Yun, Chang-Yeol (New & Renewable Energy Resource & Policy Center, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Kim, Hyung-Goo (New & Renewable Energy Resource & Policy Center, Korea Institute of Energy Research)
  • 김보영 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원.정책센터) ;
  • 알바 빌라노바 코르테존 ;
  • 김창기 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원.정책센터) ;
  • 강용혁 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원.정책센터) ;
  • 윤창열 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원.정책센터) ;
  • 김현구 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원.정책센터)
  • Received : 2019.10.03
  • Accepted : 2019.12.26
  • Published : 2019.12.30
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Abstract

With the opening of the small power brokerage business market in December 2018, the small power trading market has started in Korea. Operators must submit the day-ahead estimates of power output and receive incentives based on its accuracy. Therefore, the accuracy of power generation forecasts is directly affects profits of the operators. The forecasting process for power generation can be divided into two procedure. The first is to forecast solar irradiation and the second is to transform forecasted solar irradiation into power generation. There are two methods for transformation. One is to simulate with physical model, and another is to use regression model. In this study, we found the best-fit regression model by analyzing hourly data of PV output and solar irradiation data during three years for 242 PV plants in Korea. The best model was not a linear model, but a sigmoidal model and specifically a Gompertz model. The combined linear regression and Gompertz curve was proposed because a the curve has non-zero y-intercept. As the result, R2 and RMSE between observed data and the curve was significantly reduced.

Keywords

References

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Cited by

  1. Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance vol.13, pp.4, 2019, https://doi.org/10.3390/en13040781