Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회 논문집)

The Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회)
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An Application of the Probability Plotting Positions for the Ln­least Method for Estimating the Parameters of Weibull Wind Speed Distribution

와이블 풍속 분포 파라미터 추정을 위한 Ln­least 방법의 확률도시위치 적용

  • Kang, Dong-Bum (Multidisciplinary Graduate School Program for Wind Energy, Graduate School, Jeju National University) ;
  • Ko, Kyung-Nam (Faculty of Wind Energy Engineering, Graduate School, Jeju National University)
  • 강동범 (제주대학교 대학원 풍력특성화협동과정) ;
  • 고경남 (제주대학교 대학원 풍력공학부)
  • Received : 2018.05.30
  • Accepted : 2018.10.30
  • Published : 2018.10.30
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Abstract

The Ln-least method is commonly used to estimate the Weibull parameters from the observed wind speed data. In previous studies, the bin method has been used to calculate the cumulative frequency distribution for the Ln-least method. The purpose of this study is to obtain better performance in the Ln-least method by applying probability plotting position(PPP) instead of the bin method. Two types of the wind speed data were used for the analysis. One was the observed wind speed data taken from three sites with different topographical conditions. The other was the virtual wind speed data which were statistically generated by a random variable with known Weibull parameters. Also, ten types of PPP formulas were applied which were Hazen, California, Weibull, Blom, Gringorten, Chegodayev, Cunnane, Tukey, Beard and Median. In addition, in order to suggest the most suitable PPP formula for estimating Weibull parameters, two accuracy tests, the root mean square error(RMSE) and $R^2$ tests, were performed. As a result, all of PPPs showed better performances than the bin method and the best PPP was the Hazen formula. In the RMSE test, compared with the bin method, the Hazen formula increased estimation performance by 38.2% for the observed wind speed data and by 37.0% for the virtual wind speed data. For the $R^2$ test, the Hazen formula improved the performance by 1.2% and 2.7%, respectively. In addition, the performance of the PPP depended on the frequency of low wind speeds and wind speed variability.

Keywords

References

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