Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure

Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering (응용생태공학회)
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Analysis of historical drought in East Asia with CLM and CLM-VIC

CLM 및 CLM-VIC를 이용한 동아시아 지역의 과거 가뭄 분석

  • Um, Myoung-Jin (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Kim, Jeongbin (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Kim, Mun Mo (Department of Civil Engineering, Shingu University) ;
  • Kim, Yeonjoo (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University)
  • 엄명진 (연세대학교 사회환경시스템공학부) ;
  • 김정빈 (연세대학교 사회환경시스템공학부) ;
  • 김문모 (신구대학교 공간시스템학부 토목과) ;
  • 김연주 (연세대학교 사회환경시스템공학부)
  • Received : 2018.09.19
  • Accepted : 2018.09.28
  • Published : 2018.09.30
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Abstract

In this study, the historical drought in East Asia was analyzed with the Community Land Model (CLM) and CLM-Variable infiltration capacity (CLM-VIC). The observation dataset, Climate Research Unit (CRU), were also applied to check and estimate the historical drought for 1951 - 2010. The annual precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration by CRU, CLM and CLM-VIC were investigated before estimating the meteorological drought index, which is the Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Three variables by observation and simulations have generally similar spatial pattern in East Asia even though there are some mere differences depending on the local area. These similar patterns are also founded in the results of SPEI by CRU, CLM and CLM-VIC. However, the similarity of SPEI becomes weaker as the drought severity goes severer from D1 to D4.

본 연구에서는 CLM 및 CLM-VIC의 모의 자료를 이용하여 기존에 관측된 동아시아 지역의 가뭄을 분석하였다. 관측 자료는 CRU 자료를 활용하였으며, 연구기간으로 1951 - 2010년을 설정하였다. 기상학적 가뭄 지수인 SPEI를 산정하기 전에 연평균 강수량, 기온 및 증발량에 대한 각각의 비교 및 검토를 수행하였다. 각 모의 자료들이 국지적으로는 관측 자료와 미소한 차이를 보이나 동아시아 전반적으로는 유사한 시공간 패턴을 보이는 것으로 간주되어 SPEI 산정 시 적절할 것으로 판단되었다. SPEI 산정결과들을 기왕 대표 가뭄 및 연구 기간에 대한 빈도 해석을 통하여 검토한 결과, CLM 및 CLM-VIC는 관측 가뭄인 CRU와 공간적으로 유사한 분포를 나타내었다. 다만, 가뭄의 정도가 심해지면 그 유사성이 다소 감소하는 경향을 보였다.

Keywords

References

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