Clean Technology (청정기술)

The Korean Society of Clean Technology (한국청정기술학회)
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Economic Feasibility Assessment and Analysis of Dual Fuel Systems Utilizing Diesel and Compressed Natural Gas

경유와 압축천연가스의 혼소 시스템에 대한 경제적 타당성 평가 분석

  • Cho, A-Ra (Department of Environmental Engineering, Division of Architectural, Civil, and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lim, Seong-Rin (Department of Environmental Engineering, Division of Architectural, Civil, and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Kangwon National University)
  • 조아라 (강원대학교 공과대학 건설토목환경공학부 환경공학전공) ;
  • 임성린 (강원대학교 공과대학 건설토목환경공학부 환경공학전공)
  • Received : 2018.05.31
  • Accepted : 2018.06.18
  • Published : 2018.09.28
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Abstract

Since particulate matter has high impacts on human health and everyday life, the dual fuel systems utilizing diesel and compressed natural gas have been developed to improve the environmental performance of diesel vehicles. The objective of this study is to estimate the economic feasibility of the dual fuel system based on real operating data of dual fuel buses and diesel buses. The system is economically feasible if the annual mileage of the dual bus is higher than 30,000 km, or if the unit fuel price of diesel is higher than that of CNG by 408 won. The uncertainty analysis results show that the economic feasibility of the system is probabilistically high, regardless of the variability of input data such as mileage and unit prices for the fuels. The sensitivity analysis results show that diesel and CNG prices are the highest contributor to the net present value of the system. Based on these results, economic incentives are suggested to disseminate the systems. This study would provide valuable economic information for bus business industry and policy maker to help make decisions for applying and disseminating the dual fuel systems to mitigate particulate matter problems.

인체의 건강뿐만 아니라 일상 활동에도 막대한 악영향을 끼치고 있는 미세먼지를 저감하기 위하여 경유자동차의 엔진에 압축천연가스(CNG)와 경유를 함께 사용할 수 있도록 하는 혼소시스템이 개발되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 CNG와 경유를 함께 사용하는 혼소시스템을 경유버스에 적용하였을 때 얻을 수 있는 경제적 비용과 편익을 실제 주행결과를 바탕으로 평가 분석하여 혼소시스템의 경제적 타당성을 검토하였다. 혼소버스의 연간 주행거리가 30,000 km 이상이거나 경유와 CNG의 연료단가 차이가 408원 이상일 때 혼소시스템의 경제성이 확보되는 것으로 나타났다. 경제성 평가의 불확도평가 결과에서는 주행거리와 연료단가 등 입력 데이터의 변동성에 대해서도 경제성이 확보될 수 있는 확률이 매우 높았다. 민감도분석 결과에서는 혼소시스템의 경제적 타당성에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 인자는 경유 연료단가로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 혼소시스템의 보급을 늘리기 위한 경제적 유인책이 분석되었다. 본 연구결과는 경유 버스에서 발생하는 미세먼지 문제를 저감하기 위한 혼소시스템의 보급을 확대시키기 위한 정책적 방안을 개발하는데 기여할 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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