Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management

한국건설관리학회 (Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Stability of Construction Cost-variability Factor Rankings from Professionals' Perspective: Evidence from Dar es Salaam -Tanzania

  • 투고 : 2017.11.24
  • 심사 : 2018.06.25
  • 발행 : 2018.06.30
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

This study investigates the stability of professionals' cost variability factor-rankings across different levels of cost-variability and response scenarios. Descriptive statistics are used to examine the stability of factor-ranking for 20 cost variability factors and a Multinomial Logistic (MNL) regression model was implemented to examine the stability of cost variability factors across three cost variability levels. The finding on the descriptive statistics indicated that professionals' factors-rankings are stable only for external factors. The MNL regression results on factor-stability suggested that 8 out of the 20 evaluated factors were unstable determinant of lower cost variability levels. These factors are "risk associated with the project", "personal bias and poor professionalism of the estimators", "limited time available to complete the project", "lack of skills and experience by estimator" "geographical location of projects", "incomplete & rush designs for estimate", "unforeseen or unexpected site constraints", "high class bidders for the contractors". Similarly lack of experience and large size projects were observed to be unstable as well. These observations suggest that professionals' view on pre-tender cost variability factor-ranking yields unstable factor rankings hence should not be relied upon as the only mechanisms to mitigate cost related risks in construction projects.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. K. T. Odusami, H.N. Onukwube, "Factors affecting the accuracy of pre-tender cost estimate in Nigeria", London : RICS COBRA, Dublin Institute of Technology, Republic of Ireland, pp. 1-10, 2008.
  2. A. F. Serpel, "Improving conceptual cost estimating". International Transactions, s.l. : AACE, EST.13.1-13.6, 2005.
  3. B. Lim et al., "Drivers of the accuracy of developers' early stage cost estimates in residential construction", Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 4-20, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-01-2015-0002
  4. Y. Y. Ling, J. H. K. Boo, "Improving the accuracy estimates of building of approximate projects", Building Research & Information, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 312-318, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1080/09613210122440
  5. A. Akintoye, "Analysis of factors influencing project cost", Construction Management and Economics, vol. 18, no.1, pp. 77-89, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461900370979
  6. M. Leung, M. Skirtmore, Y. S. Chan, "Subjective and objective stress in construction cost estimation", Construction Management and Economics, vol. 25, no, 10, pp. 1063-1075, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190701573296
  7. A. A. Aibinu, T. Pasco, "The accuracy of pre-tender building cost estimates in Australia", Construction Management and Economics, vol. 26, no. 12, pp. 1257-1269, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190802527514
  8. M. A. Azman, Z. Abdul-Samad, S. Ismail, "The accuracy of preliminary cost estimates in Public Works Department (PWD) of Peninsular Malaysia", International Journal of Project Management, http://dx.doi.org/- 10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.11.008, 2012.
  9. M. Skirtmore, D. Picken, "The accuracy of pre-tender building price forecasts: An analysis of USA data", Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors Refereed Journal, vol. 4, no.1, pp. 33-39, 2000.
  10. O. Ogunlana, "Learning from experience in design cost estimating", Construction Management and Economics, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 133-150, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446199100000012
  11. M. G. Oladokun, I. A. Odesola, "Accuracy of pre-tender cost estimate of consultant quantity surveyors in Nigeria", Journal of International Real Estate and Construction Studies, vol. 1, no.1, pp. 39-51, 2011.
  12. M. Skitmore, "Early stage construction price forecasting: A review of performance. London", RICS, 1991.
  13. J. Adafin, J.B. Rotimi, S. Wilkinson, "Why do the design stage elemental cost plan and final tender sum differ in New Zealand?", Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 20, no.2, pp. 116-136, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-08-2014-0016
  14. N. Morrison, "The accuracy of quantity surveyors' cost estimating", Construction Managent and Economics, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 57-75, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446198400000006
  15. C. M. Jupp, V. McMillan's, "The reliability of cost data". London : South Bank University, 1981. Cost Forum conference. pp. 1-24.
  16. A. O. Olatunji, "A comparative analysis of tender sums and final costs of public construction and supplyprojects in Nigeria", Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 60-79, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1108/13664380810882084
  17. L. K. Mui, Y. Ahmad, F. Nabavi, "Causes of high variance in building conservation tenders in Malaysia", Structural Survey, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 98-116, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1108/SS-04-2015-0023
  18. PMBOK. "A guide to the Project Management body of knowledge". 3rd ed. USA : Project Management Institute, 2004.
  19. K. M, Al-Harbi, D. W. Jonstone, H. Fayadh, "Building construction detail estimating practices in Saudi Arabia", Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 120, no. 4, pp. 774-784, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1994)120:4(774)
  20. A. Akintoye, E. Fitzgerald, "A Survey of current cost estimating practice in the UK", Construction Management and Economics, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 61-172, 2000.
  21. B. L. Oo, F. Y. Ling, A. Soo, "Information feedback and bidders competitiveness in construction bidding", Engineering Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 21, no. 5, pp. 517-585, 2014.
  22. C. Ji, J. Mbachu, Domingo, "Factors influencing the accuracy of pre-tender contract stage estimation of financial contract price in New Zealand", International Journal of Construction Supply Chain Management, vol. 4, no.2, pp. 51-64, 2014.
  23. A. Enshassi, S. Mohamed, M. Abdel Hadi, "Factors affecting the accuracy of pre-tender cost estimates in the Gaza strip", Journal of Construction in Developing Countries, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 73-94, 2013.
  24. F. K. T. Cheung, M. W. L. Wong, M. Skirtmore, "A study of clients' and estimators' tolerance towards estimating errors", Construction Management and Economics, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 349-362, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190701802380
  25. B. Flyvbjerg, M. Holm, S. Buhl, "What causes cost overrun in transport infrastructure projects?", Transport Reviews, vol. 24, pp. 3-18, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1080/0144164032000080494a
  26. Y. M. Lim, Y. Ahmad, F. Nabavi, "Causes of high variance in building conservation tenders in Malaysia", Structural Survey, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 98-116, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1108/SS-04-2015-0023
  27. R. F. Aziz, "Factors causing cost variation for constructing wasterwater projects in Egypt", Alexendria Engineering Journal, Vol. 52, pp. 51-66, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2012.11.004
  28. D. D. Ahiaga-Dagbui, S. D. Smith, "Rethinking construction cost overruns: cognition, learning and estimation", 1, 2014, Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 38-54, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-06-2013-0027
  29. J. Gunner, M. Skitmore, "Pre-bid building price forecasting accuracy: price intensity theory", Engineering Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 6, no.3, pp. 267-275, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb021117
  30. N. Chileshe, G. Kikwasi, "Critical success factors for implementation of risk assessment and management practices within the Tanzanian construction industry", Engineering Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 291-319, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-01-2013-0001
  31. Ofori, G. "Developing the construction industry in Ghana: the case for a central agency", 2012.
  32. G. J. Kikwasi, "Causes and effects of delays and disruptions in construction projects in Tanzania", Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, vol. 2, pp. 52-59, 2012.
  33. K. W. Salewi, "Project management system within TQM framework in Tanzania construction industry", s.l., Washington International University, PhD Thesis, 2003.
  34. Y. Mhando, R. Mlinga, H. Alinaitwe, "Perspectives of the causes of variations in public building projects in Tanzania", International Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 6, no.1 pp. 1-12, 2017.
  35. E. E. Rwakarehe, D. A. Mfinanga, "Effects of inedaquate design on cost and time overrun of road construction projects in Tanzania", KICEM Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management, vol. 4, no.1, pp. 15-28, 2014. https://doi.org/10.6106/JCEPM.2014.4.1.015
  36. H. Eliufoo, "Project team perception of causes of building cost overruns: A reflection in Tanzania", Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, vol. 11, pp. 149-158, 2017.
  37. H. Eliufoo, "Preliminary estimates of building cost and the lowest evaluated tender", Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 36-45, 2007.
  38. S. Phoya, "Health and safety risk management in building construction sites in Tanzania: The practice of risk assessment, communication and control", Sockholm: Chalmers University of Technology, Licentiate Thesis, 2012.
  39. S. K.Ntyakunze, "Conflicts in building projects in Tanzania: Analysis of the causes and management approaches". Stockholm: Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), PhD Thesis, 2011.
  40. A. Pazgal, P.B. Seetharaman, R.R. Batsell, "Incorporating probabilistic choice rules within random utility models of brand choice: Theory and empirical illustration", 2005.
  41. N. Mtimet, L. M. Albisu, "Spanish wine consumer behavior: A choice experiment approach" ed. L Lockshin and L.M Albisu. s.l, Wiley Periodicals, Inc, Agribusiness, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 343-362. DOI:10.1002/agr.20088, 2006.
  42. T. M. S. Elhag, A. H. Boussabaine, T. M. A. Ballal, "Critical determinants of construction tendering costs: Quantity surveyors stand point", International Journal of Project Management, vol. 23, no. 7, pp. 538-545, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2005.04.002
  43. L. Ndanga et al. "Modelling the determinants of wine choice among South Africa's 'Black Diamonds'". Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development Working paper, 2008.