Journal of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회지)

Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회)
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Analysis of Decision-making Factors for Ship and Passenger Evacuation Using AHP

AHP 기법을 활용한 선박과 승객대피 의사결정 요인 분석

  • Received : 2017.12.13
  • Accepted : 2018.06.15
  • Published : 2018.06.30
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Abstract

When a ship accident occurs, it is imperative that the captain makes a prompt decision because the accident directly leads to the loss of human lives. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively analyze the main factors and to provide basic data for making decisions in case of ship related contingencies. Experts were surveyed using questionnaires containing eight main factors. The priorities based on relative importance of those factors were determined using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). As a result, the main priority factors were capsizing (heeling occurs), and fire/explosion, which could have the greatest impact on decision making. We plan to do a larger, more detailed scale survey to improve the reliability of the results. The results above will be used as a basis for the main factors of ships and passenger evacuation decision-making procedures.

여객선은 선박사고가 발생을 하게 되면 인명의 피해로 직결되기 때문에 선장의 순간적인 결정이 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 선박의 이상증후가 발생하였을 때 선박 및 승객대피 의사결정을 위한 주요요인을 정량적으로 분석하고 의사결정에 있어 기초 자료를 제공하고자 하였다. 8개의 주요요인에 대하여 전문가 설문조사를 실시하였으며 계층분석방법(Analytic Hierarchy Process: AHP)을 이용하여 가중치를 선정하고 우선순위를 결정하였다. 그 결과 가중치가 가장 높은 주요요인은 전복(횡경사 발생)이었으며, 그다음이 화재/폭발로서, 의사결정에 있어서 가장 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 추후 세부 설문조사를 실시하여 유효수를 높여 신뢰도를 향상시킬 것이며, 본 결과는 선박과 승객대피 의사결정의 주요요인을 결정하는 기초자료로 활용 될 것이다.

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References

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