East Asian Economic Review

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (대외경제정책연구원)
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Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners: "Preference Ordering" Using CGE Analysis

  • Ji, Xianbai (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University Centre for European Studies, The Australian National University) ;
  • Rana, Pradumna B. (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University) ;
  • Chia, Wai-Mun (School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University) ;
  • Li, Changtai (School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University)
  • Received : 2018.02.07
  • Accepted : 2018.04.25
  • Published : 2018.06.30
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Abstract

Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct "preference ordering" for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a "multi-track, multi-stage" approach to trade policy.

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References

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