한국도로학회논문집 (International Journal of Highway Engineering)

  • 제20권2호
  • /
  • Pages.127-135
  • /
  • 2018
  • /
  • 1738-7159(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2287-3678(eISSN)
한국도로학회 (Korean Society of Road Engineers)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

도로 및 기상조건을 고려한 노면온도변화 패턴 추정 모형 개발

Developing Models for Patterns of Road Surface Temperature Change using Road and Weather Conditions

  • 김진국 (한국건설기술연구원 인프라안전연구본부) ;
  • 양충헌 (한국건설기술연구원 인프라안전연구본부, 과학기술연합대학교대학원 도시 및 교통시스템공학과) ;
  • 김승범 (국립경상대학교 건축도시토목공학부) ;
  • 윤덕근 (한국건설기술연구원 인프라안전연구본부, 과학기술연합대학교대학원 도시 및 교통시스템공학과) ;
  • 박재홍 (한국건설기술연구원 인프라안전연구본부)
  • 투고 : 2018.01.23
  • 심사 : 2018.03.16
  • 발행 : 2018.04.16
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

PURPOSES : This study develops various models that can estimate the pattern of road surface temperature changes using machine learning methods. METHODS : Both a thermal mapping system and weather forecast information were employed in order to collect data for developing the models. In previous studies, the authors defined road surface temperature data as a response, while vehicular ambient temperature, air temperature, and humidity were considered as predictors. In this research, two additional factors-road type and weather forecasts-were considered for the estimation of the road surface temperature change pattern. Finally, a total of six models for estimating the pattern of road surface temperature changes were developed using the MATLAB program, which provides the classification learner as a machine learning tool. RESULTS : Model 5 was considered the most superior owing to its high accuracy. It was seen that the accuracy of the model could increase when weather forecasts (e.g., Sky Status) were applied. A comparison between Models 4 and 5 showed that the influence of humidity on road surface temperature changes is negligible. CONCLUSIONS : Even though Models 4, 5, and 6 demonstrated the same performance in terms of average absolute error (AAE), Model 5 can be considered the optimal one from the point of view of accuracy.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Black, A.W., Mote, T. L. (2015). Effects of Winter Precipitation on Automobile Collisions, Injuries, and Fatalities in the United States. Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 48, pp.165-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.09.007
  2. Chapman, L., Thornes, J. E., and Bradley, A. V. (2001). Modelling of Road Surface Temperature from a Geographical Parameter Database. Part 1: Statistical, Meteorological Applications, 8(4), pp.409-419. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482701004030
  3. Chapman, L., Thornes, J. E. (2006). A Geomatics-based Road Surface Temperature Prediction Model, Science of the Total Environment, 360(1), pp.68-80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2005.08.025
  4. Feng, T., Feng, S. (2012). A Numerical Model for Predicting Road Surface Temperature in the Highway, Procedia Engineering, Vol. 37, pp.137-142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2012.04.216
  5. Gustavsson (1990). Variation in Road Surface Temperature due to Topography and Wind, Theoretical and applied climatology, 41(4), pp.227-236. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00866454
  6. Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (2015). Development of Driving Environment Observation, Prediction and Safety Transportation based on Automotive Sensors, 1st Year Report.
  7. Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (2016). Development of Driving Environment Observation, Prediction and Safety Transportation based on Automotive Sensors, 2nd Year Report.
  8. Numata, M., Okamoto, J., Tashiro, T., Ito, T. (2002). A Basic Study of Short Term Forecasting Methods of Snowfall and Road Surface Temperature Using Intelligent Visibility Meter, 11th International Road Weather Conference Standing International Road Weather Commission.
  9. Sass, B.H. (1992). A Numerical Model for Prediction of Road Temperature and Ice, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 31(12), pp.1499-1506. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1992)031<1499:ANMFPO>2.0.CO;2
  10. Sass, B.H. (1997). A numerical Forecasting System for the Prediction of Slippery Roads, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 36(6), pp.801-817. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1997)036<0801:ANFSFT>2.0.CO;2
  11. Shao, J., Lister, P. J., Hart, G. D., Pearson, H, B. (1996). Thermal Mapping: Reliability and Repeatability, Meteorological Applications, 3(4), pp.325-330. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.5060030405
  12. Shao, J., Lister, P. J (1996). An Automated Nowcasting Model of Road Surface Temperature and State for Winter Road Maintenance, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 35(8), pp.1352-1361. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1996)035<1352:AANMOR>2.0.CO;2
  13. Takahashi, N., Tokunaga, R. A., Asano, M (2006). Toward Strategic Snow and Ice Control on Roads: Developing Method for Surface-Icing Forecast by Applying Heat Balance Model. In : Transportation Research Board 85th Annual Meeting, No. 06-2067.
  14. Takahashi, N., Tokunaga, R. A., Asano, M (2008). Road Surface Temperature Prediction Model Taking into Account Effects of the Surrounding Environment. In : Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting, No.08-1445.
  15. Thornes, J.E., Shao, J. (1991). A Comparison of UK Road Ice Prediction Models, Meteorological magazine, 120(1424), pp.51-57.
  16. Voldborg, H (1993). On the Prediction of Road Conditions by a Combined Road Layer-Atmospheric Model in winter. In : Transportation Research Record, 1387, pp.231-235.
  17. Xu, B., Dan, HC, Li, L (2017), Temperature Prediction Model of Asphalt Pavement in Cold Regions based on an Improved BP neural network, Applied Thermal Engineering, Vol. 120, 25, pp.568-580. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2017.04.024
  18. Yang, C.H., Yoon, C,J., Kim, J,G., Park, J.H., Yun, D,K. (2016), Evaluation of Reliability for Road Surface Temperature Change Patterns and Road Segmentation based on Road Surface Temperature, International Journal of Highway Engineers, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 103-111. https://doi.org/10.7855/IJHE.2016.18.2.103
  19. Yang, C.H., Kim, S,B., Yoon, C,J., Kim, J,G., Park, J.H., Yun, D,K. (2016), Analysis of Road Surface Temperature Change Patterns using Machine Learning Algorithms, International Journal of Highway Engineers, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 35-44.

피인용 문헌

  1. Performance Analysis of Model for Road Surface Temperature Change Pattern by Road Section vol.20, pp.5, 2018, https://doi.org/10.7855/IJHE.2018.20.5.121