Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A study on the variation of design flood due to climate change in the ungauged urban catchment

기후변화에 따른 미계측 도시유역의 확률홍수량 변화에 관한 연구

  • Hwang, Jeongyoon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Ahn, Jeonghwan (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Induk University) ;
  • Jeong, Changsam (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Induk University) ;
  • Heo, Jun-Haeng (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University)
  • 황정윤 (연세대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 안정환 (인덕대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 정창삼 (인덕대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 허준행 (연세대학교 토목환경공학과)
  • Received : 2018.01.17
  • Accepted : 2018.02.02
  • Published : 2018.05.31
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Abstract

This research evaluated the change in rainfall quantile during S1, S2, and S3 by using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario HadGEM3-RA Regional Climate Model (RCM) produced by downscaling and bias correlation compared to the past standard observation data S0. Also, the maximum flood peak volume and flood area were calculated by using the urban runoff model and the impact of climate change was analyzed in each period. For this purpose, Gumbel distribution was used as an appropriate model based on the method of maximum likelihood. As a result, in the case of the 10 year-frequency which is the design of most urban drainage facilities, the rainfall quantile is in increased about 10% if we assume 50 years from now with the $3^{rd}$ quarter value and about 20% if we assume 70 years from now. This result implies that the installed urban drainage facility based on the currently set design flood volume cannot be met the design criteria in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect future climate conditions to current urban drainage facilities.

본 연구에서는 미계측 도시유역의 수공구조물 설계기준의 불확실성을 검토하기 위해 과거관측자료(S0)를 기준으로 상세화 기법(downscaling) 및 편의보정(bias correlation)을 통해 생산된 RCP 4.5 기후시나리오 HadGEM3-RA (RCM)모델을 이용하여 S1 (2017~2046년), S2 (2047~2076년), S3 (2077~2100년) 기간의 확률강우량의 변화를 평가하고, 도시유출모형을 이용하여 최대첨두홍수량을 산정하고 기후변화 기간별 영향을 분석하였다. 이때 확률분포형은 Gumbel, 매개변수 추정은 최우도법(ML)을 사용하였다. 평가 결과 대부분의 도시배수시설물 설계빈도인 10년 빈도의 경우 3사분위값을 기준으로 50년 미래를 가정할 경우에는 약 10%, 70년 이상의 미래를 가정할 경우에는 약 20%의 확률 홍수량 증가가 예상되었다. 이러한 결과는 현재를 기준으로 설정된 설계홍수량으로 설치된 도시배수시설물이 미래에는 설계기준에 미달하는 시설물이 될 수 있다는 것을 의미하며, 기후변화에 대응 위해서 설계기준에 시설물의 내구연한을 고려한 미래 기후상태를 반영해야할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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