Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Sensitivity analysis of flood vulnerability index of levee according to climate change

기후변화에 따른 제방의 홍수취약성지수 민감도 분석

  • Lee, Hoo Sang (Department of Civil Engineering, Kumoh National Institute of Technology) ;
  • Lee, Jae Joon (Department of Civil Engineering, Kumoh National Institute of Technology)
  • 이후상 (금오공과대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 이재준 (금오공과대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2018.10.15
  • Accepted : 2018.10.31
  • Published : 2018.11.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

In this study, a new methodology was proposed to evaluate the flood vulnerability of river levee and to investigate the effect on the levee where the water level changes according to climate change. The stability of levee against seepage was evaluated using SEEP/W model which is two-dimensional groundwater infiltration model. In addition to the infiltration behavior, it is necessary to analyze the vulnerability of the embankment considering the environmental conditions of the river due to climate change. In this study, the levee flood vulnerability index (LFVI) was newly developed by deriving the factors necessary for the analysis of the levee vulnerability. The size of river levee was investigated by selecting the target area. The selected levees were classified into upstream part, midstream part and downstream part at the nearside of Seoul in the Han river, and the safety factor of the levee was analyzed by applying the design flood level of the levee. The safety ratio of the levee was analyzed by applying the design flood level considering the current flood level and the scenario of climate change RCP8.5. The degree of change resulting from climate change was identified for each factor that forms the levee flood vulnerability index. By using the levee flood vulnerability index value utilizing these factors comprehensively, it was finally possible to estimate the vulnerability of levee due to climate change.

본 연구에서는 하천 제방에 대한 홍수취약성을 평가하는 새로운 기법을 제시하고 기후변화에 따라 변화하는 수위에 대하여 제방에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 먼저 2차원 지하수침투 모형인 SEEP/W를 이용하여 제방의 침투거동을 분석하여 침투안전성을 평가하였다. 침투거동뿐만 아니라 기후변화에 따른 하천환경여건을 고려하는 제방의 취약성 분석 기술이 필요함으로써 본 연구에서는 추가적으로 제방의 취약성 분석에 필요한 인자를 도출하여 제방의 홍수취약성지수(levee flood vulnerability index； LFVI)에 의한 취약성 평가기법을 새로이 개발 하였다. 대상지역을 한강 본류 서울 구간으로 선정하여 하도별 제방의 크기를 조사하였고 조사한 제방을 상류부, 중류부, 하류부로 구분하여 3개의 대표 제방을 선정하였다. 이들 대표 제방지점에서 현재의 계획홍수위와 기후변화 시나리오 RCP8.5를 고려한 계획홍수위를 적용하여 제방의 활동 안전율과 제방홍수취약성지수를 분석하였다. 그리고 제방홍수취약성지수를 구성하는 각각 인자들에 대하여 기후변화에 따른 변화 정도를 파악하였다. 이들 인자들을 종합적으로 활용한 제방홍수취약성지수 값을 이용하여 최종적으로 기후변화에 따른 제방의 취약성을 추정할 수 있도록 하였다.

Keywords

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_f0001.png 이미지

Fig. 1. Flood Vulnerability Index(FVI) developed by NILIM, Japan

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_f0002.png 이미지

Fig. 2. Flood Vulnerability Index(FVI) developed in case of Philippines

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_f0003.png 이미지

Fig. 3. Site of levee considered in this study and schematic diagram of levee

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_f0004.png 이미지

Fig. 4. The relationship between LFVI and flood water depth (variation)

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_f0005.png 이미지

Fig. 5. The relationship between LFVI and free borad(variation)

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_f0006.png 이미지

Fig. 6. The relationship between LFVI and seepage line chang edegree (variation)

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_f0007.png 이미지

Fig. 7. The relationship between LFVI and safety factor (variation)

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_f0008.png 이미지

Fig. 8. The relationship between LFVI and safety factor(value)

Table 1. Classification of Levee Flood Vulnerability Index(LFVI)

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_t0001.png 이미지

Table 2. Flood discharge and water depth according to climate change

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_t0002.png 이미지

Table 3. Safety factor analysis of levee according to climate change

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_t0003.png 이미지

Table 4. Vulnerability index factor according to climate change

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_t0004.png 이미지

Table 5. Levee Flood Vulnerability Index analysis according to climate change

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1161_t0005.png 이미지

References

  1. Darby, S., and Thorne, C. (1996), "Development and Testing of Riverbank-Stability Analysis." Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 122, No. 8, pp. 443-454. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1996)122:8(443)
  2. Fell, R., Wan, C., Cyganiewicz, J., and Foster, M. (2003), "Time for Development of Internal Erosion and Piping in Embankment Dams." Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, Vol. 129, No. 4, pp. 307-314. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2003)129:4(307)
  3. Geo-Slope International Ltd (2004), Seepage Modeling with SEEP/W 2004. Calgary, Alta., Canada.
  4. Gui, S., Zgang, R., and Xue, X. (1998), "Overtopping Reliability Models for River Levee." Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 124, No. 12, pp. 1227-1234. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1998)124:12(1227)
  5. Han, K. Y., Lee, J. S., and Kim, S. H..(1997), "Risk Model for the Safety Evaluation of Dam and Levee : I. Theory and Model." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association. Vol. 30, No. 6, pp. 679-690
  6. Han, K. Y., Kim, K. S., Ahn, K. H., and Lee, Y. S..(2007), "Inundation Impact Assessment for Establishing EAP in a River." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers. Vol. 2007, No. 10, pp. 1140-1143
  7. IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Penal on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  8. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: The Scientific basis summary for policy makers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  9. Jung, E. S., and Lee, K. S.(2007). "Identifying Spatial Hazard Ranking Using Multicriteria Decision Making Techniques." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol.40, No.12, pp. 969-983. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.12.969
  10. Jung, L. L., Lee, B. J., and Bea, D. H. (2009). "Parameter Regionalization of Semi-Distributed Runoff Model Using Multivariate Statistical Analysis." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol.42, No.2, pp. 149-160. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.2.149
  11. Kim, J. M., Choi, B. H., and Cho, S. D.. (2004), "Evaluation of Affecting Factors for Seepage Analysis on Levee," Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 26, No. 5
  12. Kim, K. H. (2008), "The levee design guide line." Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs.
  13. KWRA (2009). River design standard, KWRA.
  14. Lee, H. S., and Lee, J. J.(2018). "Application of Flood Vulnerability Index for Analyzing Safety Change of Levee according to Climate Change." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association. Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 293-299 https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.4.293
  15. Lee, J. T., Heo, S. C., Kim, J. H., and Han, J. Y.. (2006), "Characteristics of the Inundation and Process of Making a Flood Map According to the Levee Break Conditions in Urban Stream - Jungrang Experimental Basin." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association. Vol. 39, No. 5, pp. 383-394 https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2006.39.5.383
  16. Lee, M. H., Jung, L. L., and Bea, D. H.(2011). "Korean Flood Vulnerability Assessment on Climate Change." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 44, No. 8, pp. 653-666. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.8.653
  17. Liang, R. Y. (1999), "A Reliability Based Approach for Evaluating the Slope Stability of Embankment Dams," Engineering Geology, Vol. 54, pp. 271-285 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(99)00017-4
  18. Marc vuillet., Peyras, L., and Carvajal, C.(2013). "Levee Performance Evaluation Based on Subjective Probabilities." European Journal of Environmental and Civil Engineering, Vol. 17, No. 5, pp. 329-349 https://doi.org/10.1080/19648189.2013.785723
  19. Son, M. W., Sung, J. Y., Jung, E. S., and Jeon, G. S.(2011). "Development of Flood Vulnerability Index Considering Climate Change." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 231-248. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.3.231
  20. USACE (2009). Guidlines for Landsacpe Planting and Vegetation Management at Levees, Floodwalls, Embankment Dams, and Appurtenant Structures, USACE.
  21. USACE (2010). USACE Process for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Levee System Evaluation, USACE.
  22. Zhang, Q. (2012), "Steady and Nonsteady Seepage Flow Analysis for the Yangtze Embankment due to Bridge Construction." Procedia Earth and Planetary Science5, pp. 124-129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeps.2012.01.021