Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A study on estimation of optimal reserves for multi-purpose reservoirs considering climate change

기후변화를 고려한 다목적댐의 적정 예비율 산정 연구

  • Chae, Heechan (Department of Civil Systems Engineering, Ajou University) ;
  • Ji, Jungwon (Department of Civil Systems Engineering, Ajou University) ;
  • Yi, Jaeeung (Department of Civil Systems Engineering, Ajou University)
  • 채희찬 (아주대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 지정원 (아주대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 이재응 (아주대학교 건설시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2018.08.31
  • Accepted : 2018.10.15
  • Published : 2018.11.30
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Abstract

According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change increases the frequency of abnormal weather phenomenon. As the frequency of abnormal weather phenomenon increases, frequency of disasters related to water resources such as floods and droughts also increases. Drought is the main factor that directly affects water supply. Recently, the intensity of drought and the frequency of drought occurrence have increased in Korea. So, there is a need for water resource securing technology for stable water supply. Korean Water Plan mentioned that water reserves concept is necessary for stable water supply. Most multi-purpose reservoirs in Korea have emergency storage in addition to conservation storage used for water supply. However, there is no clear use standard for emergency storage. This study investigated the use of reservoir reserves for stable water supply. In order to consider the climate change impact, the AR5-based hydrological scenario was used as inflow data for the reservoir simulation model. Reservoir simulations were carried out in accordance with the utilization conditions of emergency storage and water supply adjustment standard. The optimal reserves for each multi-purpose reservoirs was estimated using simulation results.

기후변화에 관한 정부 간 협의체의 5차 평가보고서에 기술된 바와 같이 기후변화로 인해 이상기후 현상의 발생빈도가 증가하고 있다. 이에 홍수, 가뭄 등 수자원과 관련된 재해의 발생빈도 또한 증가하고 있다. 이 중 가뭄은 용수공급에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 재해이다. 최근 우리나라의 가뭄피해 사례를 보면 가뭄의 강도와 발생빈도가 증가하는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 따라서 안정적인 용수공급을 위한 수자원 확보 기술이 필요한 시점이다. 수자원장기종합계획에서는 수자원에도 예비율 개념의 대책 도입이 필요하다고 언급한 바 있다. 현재 국내 대부분의 다목적댐들은 평상시 용수공급에 이용되는 이수용량 외에 비상시 활용 가능한 비상용량을 확보하고 있지만 명확한 활용 기준이 없어 이를 활용하지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 안정적인 용수공급을 위해 비상용량을 예비량으로 활용하는 방안에 대해 연구하였다. 기후변화의 영향을 고려하기 위해 AR5 기반 수문시나리오를 저수지 모의운영 모형의 유입량 자료로 이용하였다. 비상용량과 용수공급 조정기준의 활용 조건에 따라 저수지 모의 운영을 실시하였고 모의 결과를 이용하여 다목적댐별 적정 예비율을 산정하였다.

Keywords

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1127_f0001.png 이미지

Fig. 1. Description of water level and capacity in reservoir

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Fig. 2. Reductions scale of adjustment standard

Table 1. Emergency storage status of multi-purpose reservoirs in nakdong river basin

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Table 2. Case of reservoir simulation operation model

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Table 3. Climate change scenarios used in the study

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Table 4. Water supply shortage in Hapcheon reservoir by climate change scenarios

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Table 5. Reservoir yield index of case 1

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Table 6. Reservoir yield index of case 2

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Table 7. Reservoir yield index of case 3

SJOHCI_2018_v51nspc_1127_t0007.png 이미지

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