STI Policy Review

과학기술정책연구원 (Science & Technology Policy Institute)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Learning from Benchmarking: A Comparison of Iranian and Korean Foresight Exercises

  • Miremadi, Tahereh (Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology (IROST), Science and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI))
  • 발행 : 2017.12.14
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

What are some of the explanations for cross-national diversity of foresight performance among technological followers? Why are some countries more successful than others in learning how to develop national innovation system foresight? This paper argues that the answers are linked to organizational capacities at three different levels: governmental, policy network and social learning. To corroborate this argument, the paper chose Iran and Korea as benchmarking partners, and attempts to find out what makes Iran a slow learner in building innovation system foresight. The conceptual model is an improved model of Saritas's, by integrating Borras' and Andersen's conceptions and classifications. The data are collected from comprehensive interviews in both countries and second-hand data of international indexes. The paper, finally, concludes that it is the weakness of analytical-systemic capacity that impedes and delays the emergence of systemic foresight in Iran, and that this weakness stems from the adverse impacts of the dominant institutions, surrounding the innovation system. The final point is that it is not sufficient for Iran to learn the methods and techniques of foresight from Korea. It should learn how to open its macro-policy towards the global market and design appropriate industrial strategy in a coherent policy-strategy portfolio.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Ahn, S.-J. (2017). Institutional basis for research boom: From catch-up development to advanced economy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 119, 237-245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.05.022
  2. Andersen, A. D., & Andersen, P. D. (2012). Innovation-system foresight: Explicating and systemizing the innovation-system, foundations of foresight and exploring its implications. Retrieved from http://orbit.dtu.dk/files/10590515/Innovation_system_foresight.pdf: technical university of Denmark.
  3. Andersen, A. D., & Andersen, P. D. (2017). Foresighting for inclusive development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 119, 227-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.007
  4. Andersen, D., A., Andersen, P. D., Park, B., & Cagnin, C. (2014). Sectoral innovation system foresight in Brazil and Korea: Competences for innovation system transformation. DTU Management Engineering.
  5. Andersen, P. D., & Rasmussen, L. B. (2014). The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes. Futures, 59, 5-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.013
  6. Beblawi, H., & Luciani, G. (Eds.). (2015). The rentier state Routledge Library Editions: Politics of the Middle East. Routledge.
  7. Borras, S. (2011). Policy learning and organizational capacity in innovation policies. Science and Public Policy, 38(9), pp. 725-734. https://doi.org/10.3152/030234211X13070021633323
  8. Choi, M., & Choi, H. L. (2016). Building a national system of technology foresight in Korea. In L. Gokhberg , D. Meissner, & A. Sokolov (Eds.), Deploying foresight for policy and strategy makers (pp. 145-159). Cham, Switzerland: Springer.
  9. Choung, J-Y. (2017, May 28). Personal interview.
  10. Cuhls, K. (2015). Lessons for policy-making from foresight in non-European countries. Policy Paper by the Research, Innovation, and Science Policy Experts (RISE) (EUR 27373 EN). Brussels: European Union. Also Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/research/openvision/pdf/rise/cuhls-lessons_policy_making.pdf
  11. Da Costa, O., Warnke, P., Cagnin, C., & Scapolo, F. (2008). The impact of foresight on policy-making: Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20(3), 369-387. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320802000146
  12. Dator, J. A. (Ed.). (2002). Advancing futures: Futures studies in higher education. Santa Barbara: Greenwood Publishing Group.
  13. Dutta, S., Lanvin, B., & Wunsch-Vincent, S. (Eds.). (2017). Global Innovation Index 2017: Innovation feeding the world. Geneva; New Delhi: World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO).
  14. Environmental Performance Index. (2016). Global metrics for environment. Retrieved from: http://epi.yale.edu
  15. Erdogdu, M. M. (2015). CH 1: Culture of development and developmental capacity of states: The Korean Case. In B. Christiansen & J. Koeman (Eds.), Nationalism, cultural indoctrination, and economic prosperity in the digital age, (pp. 1-51), IGI Global.
  16. Eriksson, E. A., & Weber, K. M. (2008). Adaptive foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(4), 462-482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.02.006
  17. Evans, P. (1995). Embedded autonomy: States and industrial transformation. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.
  18. Gavigan, J. P., & Scapolo, F. (1999). A comparison of national foresight exercises. Foresight, 1(6), 495-517. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636689910802368
  19. Gavigan, J. P., Scapolo, F., Keenan, M., Miles, I., Farhi, F., Lecoq, D., Capriati, M., & Di Bartolomeo, T. (2001). A practical guide to regional foresight. FOREN Network (Foresight for Regional Development) (Report Eur 20128 EN). European Communities. Retrieved from http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/documents/eur20128en.pdf
  20. Georghiou, L. (2001). Third generation foresight - Integrating the socio-economic dimension. Tokyo: NISTEP.
  21. Georghiou, L., & Cassingena H. J. (2008). Policy transfer and learning in foresight. In L. Georghiou, H. J. Cassingena M. Keenan, I. Miles, & R. Popper, (Eds), The handbook of technology foresight, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
  22. Georghiou, L., Cassingena Harper, J., Keenan, M., Miles, I. & Popper, R. (2008). The handbook of technology foresight, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
  23. Gertler, M. S. (2002). Technology, Culture and Social Learning: Regional and National Institutions of Governance. In M. S. Gertler, D. A. Wolfe (eds.), Innovation and Social Learning (pp. 111-134). International Political Economy Series.
  24. Havas, A. (2003). Evolving foresight in a small transition economy. Journal of Forecasting, 22(2-3), 179-201. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.855
  25. Havas, A. (2005). Terminology and methodology for benchmarking foresight programmes. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1735023
  26. Havas, A. (2007, September). Locating foresight. Paper presented at the Foresight Summit, 27 September 2007, Budapest. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2705379 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2705379.
  27. Havas, A., & Weber, M. (2016). The 'Fit' between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance subsystem. Institute of Economics, CERS HAS, Discussion Papers, MT-DP 2016/1.
  28. Hofstede Insights. (n.d.). Country comparison. Retrieved from: https://www.hofstede-insights.com/country-comparison/iran,south-korea/
  29. House, R. J., Hanges, P. J., Javidan, M., Dorfman, P. W., & Gupta, V. (Eds.). (2004). Culture, leadership, and organizations: The GLOBE study of 62 societies. Sage publications.
  30. Howlett, M. (2009). Policy analytical capacity and evidence-based policy-making: Lessons from Canada. Canadian Public Administration, 52(2), 153-175. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1754-7121.2009.00070_1.x
  31. Hwang, J., Kim, Y., Son, S., & Han, J. (2011). Technology foresight in Korea: A review of recent government exercises. Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal, 21(5), 418-427. https://doi.org/10.1108/10595421111171920
  32. Inayatullah, S. (2004). The causal layered analysis (CLA) reader: Theory and case studies of an integrative and transformative methodology. Teipei: Tamkang University.
  33. Inayatullah, S. (2006). Anticipatory action learning: Theory and practice. Futures, 38(6), 656-666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.10.003
  34. Katouzian, H. (2004). The short-term society: A study in the problems of long-term political and economic development in Iran. Middle Eastern Studies, 40(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1080/00263200412331301867
  35. Keenan, M. P. (2002). Planning and elaborating a technology foresight exercise. In B. R. Martin (Eds.). Technology foresight in a rapidly globalizing/International Practice in Technology Foresight. Vienna: UNIDO.
  36. Keenan, M., & Popper, R. (2008). Comparing foresight "style" in six world regions. Foresight, 10(6), 16-38. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810918568
  37. Lundvall, B. A., & Tomlinson, M. (2002). International benchmarking as a policy learning tool. The New Knowledge Economy in Europe: A strategy for international competitiveness and social cohesion. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 203-231.
  38. Mahdavi, H. (1970). The patterns and problems of economic a development of Rentier State. In M. A. Cook (ed.), Studies in economic history of the Middle East: From of Islam to the present day. N.Y. Oxford University Press.
  39. Manoocheri, A. (2017, June 29). Personal interview
  40. Margison, S. (2016, June 10). Iran, China rapid growth in Asia research. University News, the Global Window on Higher Education. Retrieved from: http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20160609010432897:
  41. Miles, I., Harper, J. C., Georghiou, L., Keenan, M., & Popper, R. (2008). The many faces of foresight. In L. Georghiou, J. Cass ingena Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, & R. Popper (Eds.), The handbook of technology foresight, Cheltenham: Ed ward Elgar.
  42. Miremadi, T. (2009). Confidence building as a requirement for technological capacity building. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1477829.
  43. Miremadi, T. (2014). Learning process in public policy, the case of nuclear diplomacy. International Review of Foreign Affairs, 5(1), 29-55.
  44. Miremadi, T. (2015). The analysis of system failure; Biofuel technological innovation system in Iran, Journal of Science and Technology Policy in Persian, 29, 27-42.
  45. Miremadi, T. (2015). The role of domestic factors in science and technology diplomacy, the case of iran nuclear program. International Review of Foreign affairs, 6 (2), 93-122.
  46. Momeni, F. (2017, June 30). Personal interview
  47. Nedeva, M. L. (2000). Science and technology foresight: Options for Poland. Report to the Polish Ministry of Sciences (KBN). Brussels: EC PHARE Programme.
  48. Nelson, R., & Winter, G. (1982). An evolutionary theory of economic change. Cambridge: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
  49. OECD (1996). Government technology foresight exercises. STI Review (special issue) No. 17. Paris: OECD.
  50. Park, B., & Son, S. H. (2010). Korean technology foresight for national S&T planning. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 6(1-3), 166-181. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2010.032672
  51. Park, S. W. (2009). The present and future of Americanization in South Korea. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(1), 51-66.
  52. Park, S. W. (2017, May 25). Personal interview
  53. Paya, A., & Shoraka, H. R. B. (2010). Futures studies in Iran: Learning through trial and error. Futures, 42(5), 484-495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.033
  54. Pietrobelli, C. & Puppato, F. (2015). Technology foresight and industrial strategy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 110, 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.10.021.
  55. Rose, R. (1993). Lesson-drawing in public policy: A guide to learning across time and space (Vol. 91). Chatham, NJ: Chatham House Publishers.
  56. Rusmussen, P. D. (2014). The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes. Futures, 59, 5-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.013
  57. Saritas, O. (2013). Systemic foresight methodology. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Eds.). Science, technology and innovation policy for the future: potentials and limits of foresight studies (pp. 83-117). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
  58. Schlossstein, D., & Park, B. (2006). Comparing recent technology foresight studies in Korea and China: Towards foresightminded governments? Foresight, 8(6), 48-70. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680610712531
  59. Seong, J. (2017, May 23). Personal interview
  60. Seong, J., Song, W., & Lim, H. (2016). The rise of Korean innovation policy for social problem-solving. STI Policy Review, 7(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.22675/STIPR.2016.7.1.001
  61. Shin, T., Hong, S. K., & Grupp, H. (1999). Technology foresight activities in Korea and in countries closing the technology gap. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60(1), 71-84. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00038-9
  62. Son, H. (2013a). Images of the future in South Korea. Futures, 52, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.06.001
  63. Son, H. (2013b). Alternative future scenarios for South Korea in 2030. Futures, 52, 27-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.06.005
  64. UNCTAD. (2016). Science, technology and innovation policy reviews. Geneva: UNCTAD.
  65. UNDP. (2016a). Human Development Report 2016: Briefing note for countries on the 2016 Human Development Report. Iran. Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/es/IRN.pdf. Vienna: UNDP.
  66. UNDP. (2016b). Human Development Report 2016: Briefing note for countries on the 2016 Human Development Report. Korea (republic of). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/es/KOR.pdf: UNDP.
  67. UNDP (2016c), Human Development Index, United Nations Development Program, Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi
  68. Weber, K. M., Amanatidou, E., Erdmann, L., & Nieminen, M. (2016). Research and innovation futures: Exploring new ways of doing and organizing knowledge creation. Foresight, 18(3), 193-203. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2016-0017
  69. Witt, M. A., & Redding, G. (2013). Asian business systems: institutional comparison, clusters and implications for varieties of capitalism and business systems theory. Socio-Economic Review, 11(2), 265-300. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwt002
  70. Yim, H. (2017, June 4). Personal interview