농촌계획 (Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning)

  • 제23권4호
  • /
  • Pages.111-126
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  • 2017
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  • 1225-8857(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2288-9493(eISSN)
한국농촌계획학회 (Korean Society of Rural Planning)
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상·하향 통합모형을 활용한 농업 수자원 부족의 경제적 효과 분석

Economic Impacts of Agricultural Water Shortages in Korea - A Combined Top-down and Bottom-up Model Analysis -

  • 이승호 (서울대학교 농경제사회학부) ;
  • 권오상 (서울대학교 농경제사회학부 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 강성원 (한국환경정책평가연구원)
  • Lee, Seoung-Ho (Department. of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kwon, Oh-Sang (Department. of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kang, Sung-Won (Korea Environment Institute)
  • 투고 : 2017.10.10
  • 심사 : 2017.11.23
  • 발행 : 2017.11.30
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초록

This study analyzes the impacts of agricultural water shortages in Korea using a combined top-down and bottom-up model. A multi-region multi-output agricultural sector model with detailed descriptions of production technologies and water and land resource constraints has been combined with a standard CGE model. The impacts of four different water shortage scenarios were simulated. It is shown that an active adaptation of crop choices occurs in even the regions with relatively abundant water resources in order to respond to the change in relative output prices caused by water shortages. We found that although the losses in production values are not quite large despite water shortages due to the price feedbacks, the loss in GDP is substantial. We show that our combined approach has advantages in deriving region and product specific production effects as well as the overall GDP loss effect of water shortages.

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