Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Estimating the non-use values of Gum river estuary using contingent valuation method - by Turnbull nonparametric estimation method

조건부가치측정법을 이용한 금강 하구의 비사용가치 추정 - Turnbull 비모수적 추정 방법을 적용하여

  • 신영철 (대진대학교 글로벌경제학과)
  • Received : 2017.10.18
  • Accepted : 2017.11.03
  • Published : 2017.11.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study estimated the non-use values of the Gum river estuary which are not related to the direct or indirect use of the Gum river estuary using the contingent valuation method (CVM). The non-use values of the Gum river estuary were explained and asked to be evaluated in the CVM questionnaire and estimates of the WTPs(willingness-to-pay) were elicited using the Turnbull nonparametric estimation methods on the dichotomous choice CV data. Results found the Turnbull lower bounded mean WTP per year for non-use value of the Gum river estuary was estimated at 5,822 won (95% C.I. 5,295 ~ 6,349 won) from single dichotomous CV data, and 6,205 won (95% C.I. 5,701 ~ 6,710 won) from double dichotomous CV data. The mean of two WTP estimates, 6,014 won (95% C.I. 5,498 ~ 6,529 won), was used to calculate the annual total non-use value of the Gum river estuary. Therefore, the non-use value of the Gum river estuary was estimated at 220.3 billion won (95% C.I. 201.4 - 239.2 billion won) annually. This non-use value of the Gum river estuary was composed of the bequest value totaling 68.3 billion won (95% C.I. 62.5 - 74.2 billion won), the existence value of 58.0 billion won (95% C.I. 53.0 - 63.0 billion won), the option value of 57.7 billion won (95% C.I. 52.7 - 62.6 billion won), and the vicarious consumption value totaling 36.3 billion won (95% C.I. 33.1 - 39.4 billion won).

본 논문은 금강 하구의 직 간접적 사용과 관련되지 않는 비사용가치를 조건부가치측정법(CVM)으로 추정하였다. 조건부가치측정법 설문에서 금강 하구의 비사용가치만을 추정하도록 유도하였고, 지불의사금액을 도출하기 위한 제시금액에 대한 양분선택적 응답 결과를 Turnbull 비모수적 추정법을 적용하여 분석하였다. 모형의 추정 결과로부터 Turnbull 하한 평균 지불의사금액을 구하면, 단일양분선택형 CV 자료에서는 5,822원(95% 신뢰구간 5,295원 ~ 6,349원)이고 이중양분선택형 CV 자료에서는 6,205원(95% 신뢰구간 5,701원 ~ 6,710원)으로 추정되었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 두 추정치의 평균값인 6,014원(95% 신뢰구간 5,498원 ~ 6,529원)을 금강 하구의 연간 비사용가치 산정에 이용하였다. 이로부터 도출된 금강 하구의 비사용가치는 연간 연간 2,203억 원(95% 신뢰구간 2,014억 원 ~ 2,392억 원)에 이른다. 여기에는 유산가치 683억 원(95% 신뢰구간 625억 원 ~ 742억 원), 존재가치(고유가치) 580억 원(95% 신뢰구간 530억 원 ~ 630억 원) 및 선택가치 577억원(95% 신뢰구간 527억 원 ~ 626억 원) 및 대리소비가치 363억 원(95% 신뢰구간 331억 원 ~ 394억 원)이 포함되는 것으로 평가되었다.

Keywords

References

  1. Hanemann, W. Michael, "Welfare Evaluations in Contingent Valuation Experiments with Discrete Responses", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 66, pp. 332-341, 1984. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1240800
  2. McFadden, D., Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior, in P. Zarembka (ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics, New York: Academic Press, 1974.
  3. Haab, Timothy C., Kenneth E. McConnell, Valuing Environmental and Natural Resources, Edward Elgar, 2002.
  4. Cameron, Trudy Ann, M. D. James, "Efficient estimation methods for closed-ended contingent valuation survey data", Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 69, pp. 269-276, 1987. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1927234
  5. Cameron, Trudy Ann, "A new paradigm for valuing non-market goods using referendum data: Maximum likelihood estimation by censored logistic regression", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol. 15, pp. 355-379, 1988. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-0696(88)90008-3
  6. Youngchul Shin, "Study on variability of WTP estimates by the estimation methods using dichotomous choice contingent valuation data", Environmental and Resource Economics Review, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 1-25, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2016.25.1.001
  7. Turnbull, Bruce W., "The Empirical Distribution Function with Arbitarily Grouped, Censored and Truncated Data", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, vol. 38, no. 3, 1976.