DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

딥러닝을 이용한 다변량, 비선형, 과분산 모델링의 개선: 자동차 연료소모량 예측

Improvement of Multivariable, Nonlinear, and Overdispersion Modeling with Deep Learning: A Case Study on Prediction of Vehicle Fuel Consumption Rate

  • 투고 : 2017.02.07
  • 심사 : 2017.07.25
  • 발행 : 2017.08.16

초록

PURPOSES : This study aims to improve complex modeling of multivariable, nonlinear, and overdispersion data with an artificial neural network that has been a problem in the civil and transport sectors. METHODS: Deep learning, which is a technique employing artificial neural networks, was applied for developing a large bus fuel consumption model as a case study. Estimation characteristics and accuracy were compared with the results of conventional multiple regression modeling. RESULTS : The deep learning model remarkably improved estimation accuracy of regression modeling, from R-sq. 18.76% to 72.22%. In addition, it was very flexible in reflecting large variance and complex relationships between dependent and independent variables. CONCLUSIONS : Deep learning could be a new alternative that solves general problems inherent in conventional statistical methods and it is highly promising in planning and optimizing issues in the civil and transport sectors. Extended applications to other fields, such as pavement management, structure safety, operation of intelligent transport systems, and traffic noise estimation are highly recommended.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. ASTM (2015), ASTM E1926-08; Standard Practice for Computing International Roughness Index of Roads from Longitudinal Profile Measurements, ASTM International, West Conshohocken, PA.
  2. Bishop, C. M., (1995), Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition, Clarendon Press - Oxford.
  3. DL4J(2016), Introduction to Deep Neural Networks, DEEPLEARNING4J, A Web Page, (Available in : https://deeplearning4j.org/neuralnet-overview).
  4. Han, D., Yoo, I., and Lee, S. (2016)," Development of Heavy Bus Fuel Consumption Model considering Road Pavement Roughness", J. of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol.16, No.5, pp.41-46. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2016.16.5.41
  5. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R. and Friedman, J. (2009), The Elements of Statistical Learning; Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction (2nd edition), Springer Series in Statistics, Springer-Verlag New York.
  6. Lilien, G. L. and Rangaswamy, A. (1999), Marketing Engineering, 1999-20 Predicting Individual Responses using Multinomial Logit Analysis uModeling an Individual's Response to Marketing Effort, Marketing Engineering; Computer-Assisted Marketing analysis and Planning (Available in: http://slideplayer.com/slide/5270066/ ).
  7. Master, T., (1995), Advanced Algorithms for Neural Networks, Wiley.
  8. Palisade (2015), NeuralTools; Neural Network Add-in for Microsoft Excel (ver.7), Palisade Corporation, NY.
  9. Raschka Sebastian (2015), Single-layer Neural Networks and Gradient Descent, A Web Page, (Available in: http://sebasti anraschka.com/Articles/2015_singlelayer_neurons.html).
  10. Reed, R. D. and Robert, J. M. (1999), Neural Smithing; Supervised Learning in Feedforward Artificial Neural Networks, MIT Press.
  11. RIMF (R Is My Friend) (2016), Variable importance in neural networks, A web page, (Available in: https://beckmw.wordpress.com/2013/08/12/variable-importance-in-neuralnetworks/).
  12. Rosenblatt, F. (1958), "The Perceptron: A Probabilistic Model for Information Storage and Organization in the Brain", Psychological Review, Vol.65, No.6, pp.386-408. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0042519
  13. Rumelhart, D. E., Hinton, G. E. and Williams, R. J. (1986), "Learning Internal Representations by Error Propagation", Parallel Distributed Processing, Vol. 1, Cambridge MA: MIT Press, pp.318-362.
  14. Wikepedia (2017), Searching key word: Deep learning, Wikipedia (date: Jan, 2017).

피인용 문헌

  1. Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Service Life using Deep Learning vol.20, pp.2, 2018, https://doi.org/10.7855/IJHE.2018.20.2.057