DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

반복 구매제품의 재구매시기 예측을 위한 다층퍼셉트론(MLP) 모형과 순환신경망(RNN) 모형의 성능비교

Comparison of Performance between MLP and RNN Model to Predict Purchase Timing for Repurchase Product

  • Song, Hee Seok (Department of Global IT Business in Hannam University)
  • 투고 : 2016.12.03
  • 심사 : 2017.02.08
  • 발행 : 2017.03.31

초록

Existing studies for recommender have focused on recommending an appropriate item based on the customer preference. However, it has not yet been studied actively to recommend purchase timing for the repurchase product despite of its importance. This study aims to propose MLP and RNN models based on the only simple purchase history data to predict the timing of customer repurchase and compare performances in the perspective of prediction accuracy and quality. As an experiment result, RNN model showed outstanding performance compared to MLP model. The proposed model can be used to develop CRM system which can offer SMS or app based promotion to the customer at the right time. This model also can be used to increase sales for repurchase product business by balancing the level of order as well as inducing repurchase of customer.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Agrawal, R., Ieong, S., and Velu, R., Timing When to Buy, ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM), 2011.
  2. Bastien, F., Lamblin, P., Pascanu, R., Bergstra, J., Goodfellow, I., Bergeron, A., Bouchard, N., Warde-Farley, D., and Bengio, Y., Theano : new features and speed improvements, NIPS 2012 deep learning workshop, 2012.
  3. Bayus, B., L., "The Consumer Durable Replacement Buyer", Journal of Marketing, Vol. 55, No. 1, 1991, pp. 42-51. https://doi.org/10.2307/1252202
  4. Bengio, Y., Simard, P., and Frasconi, P., "Learning long-term dependencies with gradient descent is difficult", IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, Vol. 5, No. 2, 1994, pp. 157-166. https://doi.org/10.1109/72.279181
  5. Chen, Y. L. and Huang, T. C. K., "Discovering fuzzy time-interval sequential patterns in sequence databases", IEEE Syst. Trans. Man Cybernet Part B, Vol. 35, No. 5, 2005, pp. 959-972. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMCB.2005.847741
  6. Chiang, D. A., Lee, S. L., Chen, C. C., and Wang, M. H., "Mining interval sequential patterns", International Journal of Intelligent System, Vol. 20, No. 3, 2005, pp. 359-373. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.20070
  7. Glorot, X. and Bengio, Y., Understanding the difficulty of training deep feedforward neural networks, Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics(AISTATS'10), 2010.
  8. Gould, B. W. and Dong, D., "The Decision of When to Buy a Frequently Purchased Good : A Multi-Period Probit Model", Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 25, No. 2, 2000, pp. 636-652.
  9. Hinton, G. E., Osindero, S., and Teh, Y., "A fast learning algorithm for deep belief nets", Neural Computation, Vol. 18, 2006, pp. 1527-1554. https://doi.org/10.1162/neco.2006.18.7.1527
  10. Hu, Y. H., Huang, T. C., Yang, H. R., and Chen, Y. L., "On mining multi-time-interval sequential patterns", Data Knowledge Engineering, Vol. 68, No. 10, 2009, pp. 1112-1127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.datak.2009.05.003
  11. Mulder, W. D., Bethard, S., and Moens, M.-F., "A survey on the application of recurrent neural networks to statistical language modeling", Computer Speech and Language, Vol. 30, No. 1, 2015, pp. 61-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csl.2014.09.005
  12. Oh, J., Kim, S., Kim, J., and Yu, H., "When to recommend : A new issue on TV show recommendation", Information Sciences, Vol. 280, No. 1, 2014, pp. 261-274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2014.05.003
  13. Rendle, S., Freudenthaler, C., and Schmidt-Thieme, L., Factorizing personalized markov chains for next-basket recommendation, In WWW Conference, 2010, pp. 811-820.
  14. Sato, M., Izumo, H., and Sonoda, T., Discount Sensitive Recommender System for Retail Business, Proceedings of the 3rd Workshop on Emotions and Personality in Personalized Systems, 2015, pp. 33-40.
  15. Wang, J., Sarwar, B., and Sundaresan, N., Utilizing related products for post-purchase recommendation in e-commerce, Proceedings of the fifth ACM conference on Recommender systems, 2011, pp. 329-332.
  16. Zhao, G., Lee, M. L., and Wynne, H., Utilizing Purchase Intervals in Latent Clusters for Product Recommendation, Proceedings of the 8th Workshop on Social Network Mining and Analysis (SNAKDD'14), 2014, pp. 1-9.

피인용 문헌

  1. Prediction of Repeat Customers on E-Commerce Platform Based on Blockchain vol.2020, pp.None, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8841437
  2. 머신러닝을 이용한 철광석 가격 예측에 대한 연구 vol.25, pp.2, 2017, https://doi.org/10.9723/jksiis.2020.25.2.057