한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제50권8호
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  • Pages.537-549
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  • 2017
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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한-일 단기 수치예보자료를 이용한 강우 및 홍수 예측 성능 비교

Performance comparison of rainfall and flood forecasts using short-term numerical weather prediction data from Korea and Japan

  • 유완식 (충남대학교 국제수자원연구소) ;
  • 윤성심 (한국외국어대학교 차세대도시농림융합기상사업단) ;
  • 최미경 (충남대학교 국제수자원연구소) ;
  • 정관수 (충남대학교 토목공학과)
  • Yu, Wansik (International Water Resources Research Institute, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Yoon, Seongsim (WISE Institute, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) ;
  • Choi, Mikyoung (International Water Resources Research Institute, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Jung, Kwansue (Department of Civil Engineering, Chungnam National University)
  • 투고 : 2017.05.29
  • 심사 : 2017.06.21
  • 발행 : 2017.08.31
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초록

본 연구에서는 기상청에서 제공하는 국지예보모델(LDAPS)과 일본 기상청의 중규모모델(Meso-Scale Model, MSM)을 이용하여 태풍 및 정체전선 등 3개의 강우사상과 남강댐 유역 내 산청 유역에 대해 강우 및 홍수 예측 정확도를 평가하고 비교 검토하였다. 강우예측 정확도 평가 결과, LDAPS와 MSM 모두 태풍 사상과 같은 광역적인 예측에 대해서는 예측 정확도가 높은 것으로 나타났으나, 정체전선과 같이 국지적으로 발생하는 강우사상의 경우 예측 오차가 많이 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 홍수예측 정확도 평가 결과, 선행시간이 증가함에 따라 점점 예측 정확도가 향상되는 것을 확인할 수 있었으며, LDAPS와 MSM 모두 기상 및 수자원간의 연계를 통하여 강우 및 홍수 예측 분야에서의 활용 가능성을 확인할 수 있었다.

This study evaluated the accuracy of rainfall and flood forecasts in Sancheong basin with three rainfall events such as typhoon and stationary front by using LDAPS provided by Korea Meteorological Agency and MSM provided by Japan Meteorological Agency. In the rainfall forecast result, both LDAPS and MSM showed high forecast accuracy for wide-area prediction such as typhoon event, but local-area prediction such as stationary front has a limit to quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). In the flood forecast result, the forecast accuracy was improved with the increase of the lead time, and it showed the possibility of LDAPS and MSM in the field of rainfall and flood forecast by linking meteorology and water resources.

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