Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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Review of Real Options Analysis for Renewable Energy Projects

실물옵션 기법을 활용한 신재생에너지사업 경제성분석에 관한 연구

  • Kim, Kyeongseok (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University)
  • 김경석 (연세대학교 토목환경공학과)
  • Received : 2017.02.21
  • Accepted : 2017.03.02
  • Published : 2017.03.31
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Abstract

Due to climate change, countries around the world are actively investing in renewable energy, reducing fossil fuel use. 23.7% of world electricity is supplied by renewable energy. As the technology continues to develop, it is in a level to compete in terms of power generation cost, and investment conditions are improving. However, investment in renewable energy projects is not easy. This study analyzed trends of domestic and international researches on economics assessment applying real options analysis to investment decisions of hydro, solar, and wind power projects, which account for a large portion of renewable energy. This study provides (1) the difference between the traditional economic method and the real options analysis, (2) the application process, and (3) the uncertainty elements and option type of the renewable energy project presented by many studies. The real options analysis is suitable for the detailed investment strategy by considering the uncertainties of the renewable energy project and applying the option to improve the profit or to avoid the risk.

기후변화의 영향으로 세계 각국은 화석연료 사용을 줄이고, 신재생에너지에 대한 투자가 활발하게 이뤄지고 있다. 세계 전력의 23.7%를 신재생에너지가 공급하고 있으며, 계속된 기술의 발전으로 화력설비와 발전원가 면에서 경쟁할 수준이 되어 투자 여건이 좋아 지고 있다. 하지만, 신재생에너지 프로젝트의 투자를 결정하는 것은 쉽지 않다. 본 연구는 신재생에너지 중에서 많은 비중을 차지하고 있는 수력, 태양광, 풍력발전 프로젝트 투자 결정에 실물옵션방법을 적용한 경제성평가에 대해 국내외 연구동향을 분석하였다. 본 연구는 (1)전통적 경제성분석방법과 실물옵션방법의 차이점, (2)적용 과정, (3)많은 연구들이 제시한 신재생에너지 프로젝트의 불확실성 요소들과 옵션종류에 대해 알아보았다. 실물옵션분석방법은 신재생에너지 프로젝트의 불확실성 요소들을 고려하고 수익을 향상시키거나 리스크를 피할 수 있는 옵션 적용이 가능하여 세밀한 투자계획수립에 적합하다.

Keywords

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