Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health

The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine (대한예방의학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study

  • Shadmani, Fatemeh Khosravi (Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Mansori, Kamyar (Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Karami, Manoochehr (Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Zayeri, Farid (Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Shadman, Reza Khosravi (School of Public Health, Dezful University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Hanis, Shiva Mansouri (Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Soori, Hamid (Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences)
  • Received : 2016.09.12
  • Accepted : 2017.02.06
  • Published : 2017.03.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Objectives: The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. Methods: The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. Results: The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. Conclusions: On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.

Keywords

References

  1. World Health Organization. Global status report on road safety 2013 [cited 2013 Mar 6]. Available from: http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/.
  2. Soori H, Hatam Abadi HR, Vafaei R, Hadadi M, Ayni E, Asna Ashari HR. Pattern epidemiologic road traffic injuries Tehran-Abali road: a cohort study. Payesh 2010;11(11): 29-37 (Persian).
  3. Khorasani-Zavareh D, Mohammadi R, Khankeh HR, Laflamme L, Bikmoradi A, Haglund BJ. The requirements and challenges in preventing of road traffic injury in Iran. A qualitative study. BMC Public Health 2009;9:486. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-9-486
  4. Rockhill B, Newman B, Weinberg C. Use and misuse of population attributable fractions. Am J Public Health 1998;88(1):15-19. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.88.1.15
  5. Karami M, Soori H, Monfared AB. Estimating the contribution of selected risk factors in attributable burden to stroke in Iran. Iran J Public Health 2012;41(5):91-96.
  6. Murray CJ, Lopez AD. On the comparable quantification of health risks: lessons from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Epidemiology 1999;10(5):594-605. https://doi.org/10.1097/00001648-199909000-00029
  7. Hajihosseinlo M, Abolhasani M, Emadi A. Effects of cell phone use during the driving and its role in the occurrence of road traffic accidents; 2008 [cited 2017 Mar 15]. Available from: https://www.civilica.com/Paper-TTC08-TTC08_092.html (Persian).
  8. Ayni E. Opportunities and threats to mandatory law of child restraint usage in Iran. J Saf Promot Inj Prev 2013;1(1):37-43 (Persian).
  9. McEvoy SP, Stevenson MR, McCartt AT, Woodward M, Haworth C, Palamara P, et al. Role of mobile phones in motor vehicle crashes resulting in hospital attendance: a case-crossover study. BMJ 2005;331(7514):428. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.38537.397512.55
  10. Cummings P, Rivara FP, Olson CM, Smith KM. Changes in traffic crash mortality rates attributed to use of alcohol, or lack of a seat belt, air bag, motorcycle helmet, or bicycle helmet, United States, 1982-2001. Inj Prev 2006;12(3):148-154. https://doi.org/10.1136/ip.2005.010975
  11. Soori H, Ebn Ahmadi A, Ashrafi Hafez A, Hatam Abadi HR, Hadadi M, Ayni E. Speed management: a road safety manual for decicion-makers and practitioners. Tehran: Research Center of NAJA; 2009, p. 75 (Persian).
  12. Eide GE. Attributable fractions for partitioning risk and evaluating disease prevention: a practical guide. Clin Respir J 2008;2 Suppl 1:92-103.
  13. Farmer CM, Braitman KA, Lund AK. Cell phone use while driving and attributable crash risk. Traffic Inj Prev 2010;11(5):466-470. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2010.494191
  14. World Health Organization. Speed management: a road safety manual for decision-makers and practitioners; 2008 [cited 2017 Feb 28]. Available from: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/43915/1/9782940395040_eng.pdf.
  15. Lyznicki JM, Doege TC, Davis RM, Williams MA. Sleepiness, driving, and motor vehicle crashes. Council on Scientific Affairs, American Medical Association. JAMA 1998;279(23):1908-1913. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.279.23.1908
  16. Philip P, Vervialle F, Le Breton P, Taillard J, Horne JA. Fatigue, alcohol, and serious road crashes in France: factorial study of national data. BMJ 2001;322(7290):829-830. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.322.7290.829
  17. Pierce RJ. Driver sleepiness: occupational screening and the physician's role. Aust N Z J Med 1999;29(5):658-661. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1445-5994.1999.tb01613.x
  18. World Health Organization. Comparative quantification of health risks: global and regional burden of disease attribution to selected major risk factors [cited 2012 Jul 6]. Available from: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/cra/en/.