Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems (한국산업정보학회논문지)

Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems (한국산업정보학회)
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Estimating the Moments of the Project Completion Time in Project Networks

프로젝트 네트워크에서 사업완성시간의 적률 추정

  • Received : 2017.01.25
  • Accepted : 2017.02.13
  • Published : 2017.02.28
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Abstract

For a project network analysis, a fundamental problem is to estimate the distribution function of the project completion time. In this paper, we propose a method for evaluating moments(mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis) of the project completion time under the assumption that the durations of activities are independently and normally distributed. The proposed method utilizes the technique of discretization to replace the continuous probability density function(pdf) of activity duration with its discrete pdf and a random number generation. The proposed method is easy to use for large-sized project networks, and the computational results of the proposed method indicate that the accuracy is comparable to that of direct Monte Carlo simulation.

프로젝트 네트워크 분석에서 사업완성시간의 분포를 추정하는 것은 매우 기본적이다. 본 논문에서는 활동시간이 상호 독립적이고 정규분포를 따른다는 가정 하에서 사업완성시간의 적률(평균, 분산, 왜도, 첨도)을 추정하기 위한 방법을 제안한다. 제안된 방법은 연속형의 활동시간 분포를 이산형 분포로 근사화하기 위한 이산화 기법과 난수발생을 이용한다. 제안된 방법은 대규모 네트워크에 대해서도 쉽게 적용 가능하며, 그리고 제안된 방법에 의한 결과는 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션에 의해 얻어진 결과와 비교할 때 매우 정확함을 보여준다.

Keywords

References

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