Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Effect of Yearly Changes in Growing Degree Days on the Potential Distribution and Growth of Quercus mongolica in Korea

연도별 생장도일의 변화가 신갈나무의 잠재분포와 생장에 미치는 영향

  • Lim, Jong Hwan (Center for Forest and Climate Change, Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Park, Ko Eun (Center for Forest and Climate Change, Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Shin, Man Yong (Department of Forest, Environment, and System, Kookmin University)
  • 임종환 (국립산림과학원 기후변화센터) ;
  • 박고은 (국립산림과학원 기후변화센터) ;
  • 신만용 (국민대학교 산림환경시스템학과)
  • Received : 2016.07.19
  • Accepted : 2016.09.05
  • Published : 2016.09.30
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Abstract

This study was conducted to analyze the effect of yearly changes in growing degree days (GDD) on the potential distribution and growth of Quercus mongolica in Korea. Annual tree-ring growth data of Quercus mongolica collected by the $5^{th}$ National Forest Inventory were first organized to identify the range of current distribution for the species. Yearly GDD was calculated based on daily mean temperature data from 1951 to 2010 for counties with current distribution of Q. monglica. When tree-ring growth data were analyzed through cluster analysis based on similarity of climatic conditions, seven clusters were identified. Yearly GDD based on daily mean temperature data of each county were calculated for each of the cluster to predict the change of potential distribution. Temperature effect indices were estimated to predict the effect of GDD on the growth patterns. In addition, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of climate change scenarios were adopted to estimate yearly GDD and temperature effect indices from 2011 to 2100. The results indicate that the areas with low latitude and elevation exceed the upper threshold of GDD for the species due to the increase of mean temperature with climate change. It was also predicted that the steep increase of temperature will have negative influences on tree-ring growth, and will move the potential distribution of the species to areas with higher latitude or higher elevation, especially after the year of 2050. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for estimating local growth characteristics and for predicting changes in the potential distribution of Q. mongolica caused by climate change.

본 연구는 우리나라의 대표 활엽수종 중의 하나인 신갈나무를 대상으로 기후변화에 의한 연도별 생장도일의 변화가 잠재분포 및 생장에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해 수행하였다. 이를 위해 신갈나무 분포 지역의 기후특성을 반영한 군집분석을 실시하였으며, 그 결과 7개의 기후군집으로 분류되었다. 각 군집에 포함된 시군에서 수집된 일평균기온 자료를 기반으로 1951년부터 2010년까지 60년 동안의 연도별 생장도일과 기온효과지수를 산출함으로써 시간 경과에 따른 신갈나무의 잠재분포 범위와 생장의 변화 추이를 평가하였다. 이와 함께 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 적용하여 2011년부터 2100년까지 연도별 생장도일과 온도효과지수를 산출하여, 기후변화에 의한 신갈나무의 잠재분포 범위와 생장의 변화를 예측하였다. 신갈나무가 현재 분포하고 있는 지역의 생장도일을 연도별로 산출하여 비교한 결과 위도와 해발고도가 낮은 지역은 시간이 경과함에 따라 신갈나무에 적합한 생육가능 범위를 벗어나는 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 기후변화 시나리오를 적용할 경우 지속적인 기온의 상승으로 인해 2050년 이후에는 잠재분포의 변화뿐만 아니라 생장에도 큰 지장을 주는 것으로 평가되었다.

Keywords

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