Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

The Growth of Mobile Advertising and the Future of the Advertising Industry

모바일광고의 성장과 광고산업의 미래

  • Received : 2016.06.08
  • Accepted : 2016.08.20
  • Published : 2016.08.28
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The advertising media is undergoing a dramatic change mainly due to the increased use of smartphone. This study predicts the future of the advertising industry driven by the mobile advertising using scenario planning. Targeting technologies, restriction on the use of personal information, and overcoming ad avoidance were selected as key uncertain variables expected to impact on the growth of the mobile advertising 5 years later. With the support by expert interviews, the $2{\times}2$ matric combines two cases to generate four scenarios; the one whether mobile ads surpass PC-based online ads, the other whether the combined force of mobile and PC-based ads surpass the traditional media in advertising spendings. Each scenario is articulated according to the future of key variables. The most likely scenario is that mobile will dominate the advertising media market. However, it is important not to ignore different scenarios because key variables evolves in unexpected manner and then they can become reality. The future research will combine its key variables with social and economic ones and segment technical variables in more details.

스마트폰 이용 확대로 광고 매체시장이 큰 변화를 겪고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 모바일광고의 부상이 가져 올 광고시장의 변화를 시나리오플래닝 기법으로 예측하는 것이다. 타켓팅 기술, 개인정보 규제, 광고회피 극복을 모바일광고 성장에 크게 영향을 주는 불확실 변수로 보고 전문가 인터뷰를 통해 5년 후 광고시장을 시나리오로 구성했다. 모바일광고가 유선인터넷 광고를 능가하는지 여부와 유무선 인터넷광고가 4대 매체 광고를 추가 잠식할지 여부 두 가지 경우를 $2{\times}2$ 매트리스로 조합하여, 모바일광고가 유선인터넷 광고는 물론 4대 매체를 추가로 잠식하는 경우, 유선인터넷 광고를 보조하는 수준에서만 성장하는 경우, 유선인터넷을 잠식하는 수준에서만 성장하는 경우, 마지막으로 유선인터넷 광고와 동반 퇴보하는 경우를 불확실 변수 전개에 따라 기술했다. 전문가들은 모바일이 광고 매체시장을 평정하는 상황을 가장 유력하게 보고 있다. 하지만 타켓팅 기술, 광고회피 극복, 개인정보 활용 범위 등 불확실 변수가 어떻게 진행되느냐에 따라 충분히 다른 시나리오도 가능하다. 앞으로 기술 변수를 사회경제적인 변수와 결합하고 기술을 좀 더 세분화시켜야 하는 과제를 안고 있다.

Keywords

References

  1. B. Yang et al., “The Integrated Mobile Advertising Model: The Effects of Technology and Emotionbased Evaluations,” Journal of Business Research, Vol. 66, No. 9, pp. 1345-1352, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2012.02.035
  2. MH Lee, "A Study on N-Screen Convergence Application with Mobile WebApp Environment," Journal of the Korea Convergence Society, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 43-48, 2015. https://doi.org/10.15207/JKCS.2015.6.2.043
  3. WJ Orlikowski & D Robey, “Information Technology and the Structuring of Organizations,” Information Systems Research, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 143-169, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.2.2.143
  4. S Athey & JS Gans, "The Impact of Targeting Technology on Advertising Markets and Media Competition," AER Paper and Proceedings, 2010.
  5. DS Evans, “The Economics of the Online Advertising Industry,” Review of Network Economics, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 359-391, 2008.
  6. DOI: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=URISERV%3Al26073, Official Journal C372 of 09.12.1997
  7. JD Ratliff & DL Rubinfeld, “Online Advertising: Defining Relevant Markets,” Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 653-686, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1093/joclec/nhq011
  8. CE Tucker, “Social Networks, Personalized Advertising, and Privacy Controls,” Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 51, No. 5, pp. 546-562, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmr.10.0355
  9. SH Yoon, “Effects of Social, Economical and Political Changes on Advertising Industry,” The Korean Journal of Advertising, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 173-203, 2005.
  10. BL Lee, “A Recent Change in the Domestic Advertising Market and Four Major Media Advertisements ,” The Korean journal of advertising and public relations, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 65-93, 2011.
  11. SP Han, “The Effects of Korea-US FTA on Korean Advertising Industry ,” The Korean Journal of Advertising, Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 119-137, 2014. https://doi.org/10.14377/KJA.2014.2.28.119
  12. YC Cha et al., “A Study for the reset of the Range of Advertising and Advertising Industry according to the change in Media and Marketing Environment,” The Korean Journal of Advertising, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 59-85, 2014. https://doi.org/10.14377/KJA.2014.4.15.59
  13. Rust & Oliver(1994), "The Death of Advertising," Journal of Advertising, 23(4), pp. 71-77.
  14. KR Kim, “How Advertising Agencies are Comping with Big Data and Data Analytics ?,” The Korean Journal of Advertising, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 113-145, 2014. https://doi.org/10.14377/KJA.2014.4.15.113
  15. PJH Shoemaker 1995, "Scenario Planning: a Tool for Strategic Thinking," Sloan Management Review, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 25-40, 1995.
  16. G Ringland & , PP Schwartz, Scenarios Planning: Managing for the Future, Wiley, New York, 1998.
  17. R Bradfield et al., “The Origins and Evolution of Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning,” Futures, Vol. 37, No. 8, pp. 795-812, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
  18. JH Ahn & A Skudlark, “Managing Risk in a New Telecommunications Service Development Process through a Scenario Planning Approach,” Journal of Information Technology, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 103-118, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1080/02683960210161258
  19. H Komulainen et al., “Business Model Scenarios in Mobile Advertising,” International Journal of Internet Marketing and Advertising, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 254-270, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJIMA.2006.010739
  20. SG Chang, “Future Strategies of Telecommunication Business for Sustaining Growth,” Telecommunications Review, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 2-14, 2014.
  21. PWF Van Notten et al., “An Updated Scenario Typology,” Futures, Vol. 35, No. 5, pp. 423-443, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(02)00090-3
  22. R Ramirez & A Wilkinson, "Re-thinking the 2X2 Scenario Method: Grid or Frames?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 86, pp. 254-264, 2013.
  23. GD Peterson et al., “Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World,” Conservation Biology, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 358-366, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x
  24. G Iyer, “The Targeting of Advertising,” Marketing Science, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 461-476, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1050.0117
  25. A Goldfarb, "What is Different About Online Advertising?," Review of Industrial Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 115-129, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-013-9399-3
  26. Q Chen & WD Wells, "Attitude Toward the Site" Journal of Advertising Research, Vol. 39, pp. 27-37, 1999.
  27. CH Cho, “Why do People Avoid Advertising on the Internet?,” Journal of Advertising, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 89-97, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1080/00913367.2004.10639175
  28. J Campbell et al., "Privacy Regulation and Market Structure," SSRN eLibrary, 2010.
  29. A Goldfarb & C Tucker, “Online Display Advertising: Targeting and Obtrusiveness,” Marketing Science, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 389-404, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1100.0583
  30. EY Park, Dong-Gi Kwag, “The Study on the Market Competitiveness Reinforcement for Convergence Industry,” Journal of the Korea Convergence Society, Vol. 6, No. 5, pp. 99-106, 2015. https://doi.org/10.15207/JKCS.2015.6.5.099