응용통계연구 (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics)

  • 제29권7호
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  • Pages.1283-1294
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  • 2016
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  • 1225-066X(pISSN)
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  • 2383-5818(eISSN)
한국통계학회 (The Korean Statistical Society)
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한국 프로야구에서 수정된 WHIP와 피홈런 수를 결합한 실점 설명 수비지표들

Fielding indices for explaining runs lost combining adjusted WHIP and the number of home runs allowed in Korean professional baseball

  • 김혁주 (원광대학교 수학.정보통계학부)
  • Kim, Hyuk Joo (Division of Mathematics & Informational Statistics, Wonkwang University)
  • 투고 : 2016.08.16
  • 심사 : 2016.10.20
  • 발행 : 2016.12.31
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초록

한국 프로야구팀들의 실점을 설명하기 위한 수비지표를 연구하였다. 출루율과 장타율을 결합한 OPS가 팀들의 득점력을 매우 잘 설명한다는 사실을 동기로 하여 본 논문에서는 팀들의 실점을 설명하기 위한 수비지표를 연구하였다. 여러 가지의 수비지표 중 팀의 실점과 상관관계가 높은 것들을 결합하여 만든 몇 가지의 결합 지표들을 고려하였다. 프로야구 원년인 1982년부터 2015년까지의 정규리그 전 경기 자료를 분석한 결과 수정WHIP와 이닝당피홈런의 가중평균으로 정의되는 가중수정WPH2가 실점을 가장 잘 설명해줬다. 구체적으로 수정WHIP에 34%, 이닝당피홈런에 66%의 가중값을 두는 가중수정WPH2가 팀의 경기당 평균실점과 0.95362의 상관계수를 갖는 최적의 지표인 것으로 나타났다. 이 결과는 Kim과 Kim (2015a)에서 얻어진 지표에 의한 결과보다 좀 더 향상된 결과이다. 시대별 분석에서도 크게 다르지 않은 결과를 얻었다. 또한 얻어진 지표의 값이 좋은 투수 10명씩의 명단을 최근 3년간에 대해 연도별로 작성해보았다.

We studied fielding indices to explain runs lost for Korean professional baseball teams, successively motivated by OPS and weighted OPS obtained by combining on-base percentage and slugging average that can adequately explain the run productivity of teams. We considered several combined indices made by combining fielding indices highly correlated with the runs lost of teams. Data analysis from all games in the regular seasons of 1982-2015 shows that weighted adjusted WPH 2 (defined as weighted average of adjusted WHIP and number of home runs allowed per inning) best explains runs lost. Weighted adjusted WPH 2 consisting of adjusted WHIP (with weight 34%) and number of home runs allowed per inning (with weight 66%) was found to be optimal weighted adjusted WPH 2 having correlation coefficient 0.95362 with average runs lost per game. This result is an improvement of the result of the index obtained in Kim and Kim (2015a). Analysis by chronological periods provides results that are not much different. Also we made a list of top 10 pitchers for each of the recent three years, based on the obtained index.

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참고문헌

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