Journal of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회지)

Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회)
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A Study on Estimating Container Throughput in Korean Ports using Time Series Data

  • Kim, A-Rom (Transportation Management Colleague, Dalian Maritime University) ;
  • Lu, Jing (Transportation Management Colleague, Dalian Maritime University)
  • Received : 2015.08.27
  • Accepted : 2016.04.22
  • Published : 2016.04.30
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Abstract

The port throughput situation has changed since the 2008 financial crisis in the US. Therefore, we studied the situation, accurately estimating port traffic of Korean port after the 2008 financial crisis. We ensured the proper port facilities in response to changes in port traffic. In the results of regression analysis, Korean GDP and the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won were found to increase the container throughput in Korean and Busan port, as well as trade volume with China. Also, the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won was found to increase the port transshipment cargo volume. Based on the ARIMA models, we forecasted port throughput and port transshipment cargo volume for the next six years (72 months), from 2015 to 2020. As a result, port throughput of Korean and Busan ports was forecasted by increasing annual the average from about 3.5% to 3.9%, and transshipment cargo volume was forecasted by increasing the annual average about 4.5%.

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