Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Correlation analysis between climate indices and Korean precipitation and temperature using empirical mode decomposition : II. Correlation analysis

경험적 모드분해법을 이용한 기상인자와 우리나라 강수 및 기온의 상관관계 분석 : II. 상관관계 분석

  • Ahn, Si-Kweon (Graduate Program in Technology Policy, Yonsei Univ.) ;
  • Choi, Wonyoung (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei Univ.) ;
  • Shin, Hongjoon (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei Univ.) ;
  • Heo, Jun-Haeng (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei Univ.)
  • 안시권 (연세대학교 대학원 기술정책 협동과정) ;
  • 최원영 (연세대학교 대학원 토목공학과) ;
  • 신홍준 (연세대학교 대학원 토목공학과) ;
  • 허준행 (연세대학교 대학원 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2016.01.06
  • Accepted : 2016.01.15
  • Published : 2016.03.31
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Abstract

In this study, it is analyzed how large scale climate variation has an effect on climate systems over Korea using correlation analysis between climate indices and Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) of precipitation and temperature. For this purpose, the estimated IMFs of precipitation and temperature from the accompanying paper were used. Furthermore, cross correlation coefficients and lag time between climate indices and IMFs were calculated considering periodicities and tendencies. As results, more accurate correlation coefficients were obtained compared with those between climate indices and raw precipitation and temperature data. We found that the Korean climate is closely related with climate variations of $El-Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ in terms of periodicity and its tendency is followed with increasing sea surface temperature due to climate change.

본 연구에서는 우리나라 강수 및 기온과 다양한 기상인자와의 교차상관관계 분석을 통해 대규모 기후변동이 우리나라에 어떠한 영향을 주는지를 분석하였다. 강수 및 기온자료의 경우 앞선 연구인 "경험적 모드분해법을 이용한 기상인자와 우리나라 강수 및 기온의 상관관계 분석 : I. 자료의 분해 및 특성분석"의 연구결과를 통해 주기성, 경향성에 따라 분해한 강수 및 기온자료의 내재모드함수를 사용하여, 자료의 변동이 심하고 잡음이 포함된 원 자료를 통한 상관관계 분석보다 좀 더 명확한 상관계수를 계산하였다. 이렇게 분해된 기상자료와 기상인자간의 교차상관관계 분석을 통해 그 시간차와 상관계수를 계산하여, 주기성과 경향성 측면에서 어떠한 상관관계가 있는지를 분석하였다. 그 결과 주기성 측면에서 엘니뇨현상에 의한 기후변동이 우리나라 기상현상과 밀접한 관련이 있으며, 경향성 측면에서 기후변화로 인한 해수면 온도 증가추세가 우리나라 기상현상과 밀접한 연관이 있음을 알 수 있었다.

Keywords

References

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