The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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Comparison of forecasting models of disease occurrence due to the weather in elderly patients

기상에 따른 고령환자의 질병 발생빈도 예측모형 비교

  • Lee, Seonjae (Department of Statistics, Sookmyung Women's University) ;
  • Yeo, In-Kwon (Department of Statistics, Sookmyung Women's University)
  • Received : 2015.12.15
  • Accepted : 2015.12.23
  • Published : 2016.02.29
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Abstract

In this paper, we compare forecasting models for disease occurrences in elderly patients due to the weather. For the analysis, the medical data of aged patients released from Health Insurance Review and the weather data of the Korea Meteorological Administration are weekly and regionally merged. The ARMAX model, the VARMAX model and the TSCS regression model are considered to analyze the number of weekly occurrences of some diseases attributable to climate conditions. These models are compared with MSE, MAPE, and MAE criteria.

이 논문에서는 기상에 따른 고령 환자의 질병 발생빈도를 예측하는 방법을 비교한다. 분석을 위해 건강보험심사평가원의 고령 환자 의료 자료와 기상청 자료를 주별, 권역별로 병합한다. 기상에 영향을 받는 질병의 주별 발생 빈도를 ARMAX모형, VARMAX모형, TSCS회귀모형으로 분석하고 MSE, MAPE, MAE 기준으로 모형을 비교했다.

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