농촌계획 (Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning)

  • 제22권4호
  • /
  • Pages.103-114
  • /
  • 2016
  • /
  • 1225-8857(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2288-9493(eISSN)
한국농촌계획학회 (Korean Society of Rural Planning)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

패널중력모형을 이용한 동남아시아 대상 주요 수출 농산물 영향인자 분석

Analysis of Influencing Export Factors of Major Agricultural Products for ASEAN using Panel Gravity Model

  • 김솔희 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 생태조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 손영환 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 생태조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 박진선 (서울대학교 그린바이오과학기술연구원) ;
  • 김태곤 (미국 미네소타대학교, 환경연구소) ;
  • 서교 (서울대학교 국제농업기술대학원, 서울대학교 그린바이오과학기술연구원)
  • Kim, Solhee (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Son, Younghwan (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Jinseon (Institute of Green Bio Science & Technology, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Taegon (The NorthStar Initiative for Sustainable Enterprise (NiSE), Institue on the Environment, University of Minnesota) ;
  • Suh, Kyo (Graduate School of International Agricultural Technology, Seoul National University, Institute of Green Bio Science & Technology, Seoul National University)
  • 투고 : 2016.08.08
  • 심사 : 2016.11.17
  • 발행 : 2016.11.30
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

The global trade partners have been diversified and mixed in agricultural market, which is expended the international agri-food market through the Regional Trade Agreement and World Trade Organization, etc. The aim of this study is to derive influential factors for exports increases of agricultural products targeting to Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). We set the equation for agricultural products exports referred to panel gravity model considering panel fixed effect for controlling endogeneity within variables. The results of this study are the follows; (1) Social economic distance considering international oil price negatively affects in the mushroom model; (2) Korean GDP affects (-) in a mushroom model and (+) in a vegetable model, however, ASEAN's per capita GDP indicates opposite influence in the same model; (3) Relative exchange rate shows negative impact in a vegetable model; (4) The entry status into WTO and the status in force of FTA have converse effects in mushroom and vegetable model, respectively.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Anderson, J. and E. Wincoop, 2001. Gravity with Gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle. NBER Working Paper 8079, American Economic Review.
  2. Baier S. L. and Bergstrand J. H., 2007. Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?, Journal of International Economics. 71: 72-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.02.005
  3. Bergstrand, J., 1989. The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 71(1): 143-153. https://doi.org/10.2307/1928061
  4. Cameron, A. and P. Trivedi, 2005. Microecometrics: Methods and Applications. Cambridge. Cambridge University Press. 2005.
  5. Choi, B., 2005. A Study on Analysis of Trade Pattern of Korea and Effect of regional economic integration by Gravity Model; Using panel data analysis. Journal of Industrial Economics and Business. 18(3): 1035-1052.
  6. Feenstra et al., 2001. Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality: A Survey of Trade and Wages. Handbook of International Trade, Basil Blackwell.
  7. Feenstra, R. and Robert T., 2010. International Economics, Worth Publishers.
  8. Frankel, J.. 1997. Regional Trading Blocs in the World Trading System. Washington: Institute for International Economics.
  9. Helpman, E. and P. Krugman, 1985. Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and the International Economy, MIT Press, Cambridge.
  10. Helpman, E., 1987. Imperfect Competition and International Trade: Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries. Journal of the Japanese and International Economics. 1: 62-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/0889-1583(87)90027-X
  11. Hummels, D. and J. Levinsohn, 1995. Monoploistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 10(3): 799-836.
  12. Im, J. and D. An, 2010. A Policy Direction for Promoting the Korean Agro-food Export. Korean Journal of Food Marketing Economics. 27(4):107-135.
  13. Im, J., An, D. and J. Sung, 2011. Factors Influencing the Exports of Horticultural Sector In Korea. Korean Journal of Agricultural Management and Policy. 38(1):60-77.
  14. Kang, B., 2009. The Analysis Using the Gravity Model of Trade Creation Effect of Economic Integration in East Asia. Journal of Industrial Economics and Business. 22(4): 1961-1974.
  15. Kim, H., 2015. Analysis on effectiveness of export support programs for Korean fresh agricultural products. Master's Degree dissertation. Korea University.
  16. Kim, H., Gwon, O., and D. Nam, 2009. Main Factors affecting the Trade Flows of Fruit Products in Korea. Journal of Rural Development. 32(3): 47-70.
  17. Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation. Available at: http://www.at.or.kr/
  18. Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation, 2014. Creative Export Strategy in Agro-Fisheries and Food targeting ASEAN, Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation.
  19. Lee, B., Jang, C. and S. Song, 2013. Influencing Facotrs of Exports of Wood Sector using Spatial Gravity Model. Journal of Rural Development. 36(1):49-63.
  20. Lee, C., 2006. The Analysis of Korean Trade (l996-2000) : An Application of the Gravity Model. Korea Trade Review. 31(1): 43-73.
  21. Lee, J., 2008. An Estimation of Trade Creation Effects of Some RTAs. Journal of International Trade and Industry Studies. 13(3): 27-43.
  22. Lee, S., 2011. A Study on analysis of trade pattern of Korea by Gravity Model. Journal of Korea Research Society for Customs. 12(4): 417-432.
  23. McCallum, J., 1995. National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns. The American Economic Review. 85(3): 615-623.
  24. Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. Available at: http://www.mafra.go.kr
  25. Moon, H., Kim, K., Uh, M. and J. Lee, 2012. Factors Influencing the Export of Agricultural Products and Effects of Export Support Programs in Korea. Journal of Rural Development. 35(1): 69-90.
  26. Park, H. and C. Kim, 2014. Effects of Korea-Asean FTA on Export via Gwangyang Port: Application of the Panel Gravity Model and Rolling Regression. Journal of Korea Port Economic Association. 30(2):133-143.
  27. Son, C. and J. Yoon, 2000. Trade Patterns and Effect of Regional Economic Area based on Gravity Model. Journal of East Asian Economic Integration. Summer. Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP).
  28. Suh, K., Kim, T., and J. Lee, 2008. Reliability Analysis for Price Forecasting of Chinese Cabbage. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers. 50(3): 71-79. https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2008.50.3.071
  29. Tinbergen, J., 1962. Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Trade Policy, The Twentieth Century Fund, New York.
  30. OECD, 2016. Economic Outlook, Economic Outlook No.99-June 2016.

피인용 문헌

  1. 푸드마일을 고려한 주요수입곡물의 운송단계별 환경영향 및 저감방안 분석 vol.60, pp.3, 2016, https://doi.org/10.5389/ksae.2018.60.3.051