Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology

  • 제11권6호
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  • Pages.1548-1555
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  • 2016
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  • 1975-0102(pISSN)
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  • 2093-7423(eISSN)
대한전기학회 (The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers)
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Hourly Average Wind Speed Simulation and Forecast Based on ARMA Model in Jeju Island, Korea

  • Do, Duy-Phuong N. (Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Lee, Yeonchan (Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Choi, Jaeseok (Dept. of Electrical Engineering, ERI, RIGET, Gyeongsang National University)
  • 투고 : 2015.06.25
  • 심사 : 2016.07.28
  • 발행 : 2016.11.01
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초록

This paper presents an application of time series analysis in hourly wind speed simulation and forecast in Jeju Island, Korea. Autoregressive - moving average (ARMA) model, which is well in description of random data characteristics, is used to analyze historical wind speed data (from year of 2010 to 2012). The ARMA model requires stationary variables of data is satisfied by power law transformation and standardization. In this study, the autocorrelation analysis, Bayesian information criterion and general least squares algorithm is implemented to identify and estimate parameters of wind speed model. The ARMA (2,1) models, fitted to the wind speed data, simulate reference year and forecast hourly wind speed in Jeju Island.

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참고문헌

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피인용 문헌

  1. Analyzing the correlation and predictability of wind speed series based on mutual information pp.19314973, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/tee.22789