Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy (한국해양환경ㆍ에너지학회지)

The Korean Society for Marine Environment and Energy (한국해양환경•에너지학회)
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Estimating the Global Inflow and Stock of Plastic Marine Debris Using Material Flow Analysis: a Preliminary Approach

물질흐름분석을 활용한 전세계 플라스틱 해양쓰레기의 유입량과 현존량 추정: 예비적 접근

  • Jang, Yong Chang (Korea Marine Litter Institute, Our Sea of East Asia Network) ;
  • Lee, Jongmyoung (Korea Marine Litter Institute, Our Sea of East Asia Network) ;
  • Hong, Sunwook (Korea Marine Litter Institute, Our Sea of East Asia Network) ;
  • Choi, Hyun Woo (Oceanographic Data & Information Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology) ;
  • Shim, Won Joon (Oil and POPs Research Group, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology) ;
  • Hong, Su Yeon (Korea Marine Litter Institute, Our Sea of East Asia Network)
  • 장용창 ((사)동아시아 바다공동체 오션 / 한국 해양쓰레기 연구소) ;
  • 이종명 ((사)동아시아 바다공동체 오션 / 한국 해양쓰레기 연구소) ;
  • 홍선욱 ((사)동아시아 바다공동체 오션 / 한국 해양쓰레기 연구소) ;
  • 최현우 (한국해양과학기술원 해양과학데이터센터) ;
  • 심원준 (한국해양과학기술원 유류유해물질연구단) ;
  • 홍수연 ((사)동아시아 바다공동체 오션 / 한국 해양쓰레기 연구소)
  • Received : 2015.07.07
  • Accepted : 2015.08.18
  • Published : 2015.11.25
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Abstract

We estimated the global inflow and stock of plastic marine debris. In South Korea, we estimated that the annual inflow of plastic marine debris (72,956 tons) was about 1.4% of annual plastics consumption (5.2 million tons) in 2012. By applying this 1.4% ratio to global plastics production from 1950 to 2013, we estimated that 4.2 million tons of plastic debris entered the ocean in 2013 and that there is a stock of 86 million tons of plastic marine debris as of the end of 2013, assuming zero outflow. In addition, with a logistic model, if 4% of petroleum is turned into plastics, the final stock of plastic marine debris shall be 199 million tons at the end. As the inflow and the stock are different units of measurement, better indicators to assess the effectiveness of inflow-reducing policies are needed. And, as the pollution from plastic marine debris is almost irreversible, countermeasures to prevent it should be valued more, and stronger preventive measures should be taken under the precautionary principle. As this is a preliminary study based on limited information, further research is needed to clarify the tendency of inflow and stock of plastic marine debris.

전세계 플라스틱 해양쓰레기의 유입량과 현존량을 추정하였다. 한국에서 플라스틱 해양쓰레기의 연간 유입량(72,956톤)은 플라스틱의 연간 소비량(5.2백만톤)의 1.4%로 추정되었다. 유출량이 0이라는 가정과 함께, 이 1.4% 유입률을 1950년부터 2013년까지 전세계 플라스틱 생산량에 적용함으로써, 2013년 전세계 연간 플라스틱 해양쓰레기 유입량은 4.2백만톤이며, 2013년말 현재 플라스틱 해양쓰레기 현존량은 86백만톤으로 추정되었다. 또한 로지스틱 모델에 따라, 석유생산량의 4%가 플라스틱으로 생산될 때 플라스틱 해양쓰레기의 최종 현존량은 199백만톤이 될 것으로 추정되었다. 유입량과 현존량은 전혀 다른 측정단위이기 때문에, 유입 저감 정책의 효과성을 평가할 수 있는 개선된 지표가 필요하다. 또한, 플라스틱 해양쓰레기 오염은 거의 회복불가능하기 때문에, 이를 예방하는 대책의 가치는 훨씬 더 높게 평가되어야 하며, 사전주의의 원칙에 따라 더 강력한 예방 대책이 시행되어야 한다. 본 연구는 제한적인 정보에 근거한 예비 연구에 해당하므로 플라스틱 해양쓰레기의 유입량과 현존량의 경향을 규명하기 위한 추가 연구가 필요하다.

Keywords

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