Computational Structural Engineering (전산구조공학)

Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea (한국전산구조공학회)
권호 표지

Reliability Analysis Considering Modeling Uncertainty

모델링불확실성을 고려한 신뢰성 해석

  • 김정중 (경남대학교 토목공학과)
  • Published : 2015.09.01
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

본 기사에서는 모델링불확실성(modeling uncertainty)에 따른 신뢰성 해석결과의 가변성(variability)을 가능성 분포함수(possibility distribution function)를 구성하여 해결하는 방법을 AISC(1998), AIJ(1985), CSA(1994)에서 제안된 3개의 최대 D/t 계산식을 예로 들어 소개하였다. 확신정도가 측정된 신뢰성지수 들을 얻을 수 있으며, 확신정도를 고려한 신뢰성지수의 결정이 가능하게 된다. 다양한 형태의 불확실성에 대하여 그 형태에 맞는 적합한 불확실성 모델링을 사용하는 것도 중요하지만, 확률적 표현에 익숙한 우리의 인지구조를 고려하여 기존의 신뢰성 해석에 어떻게 다양한 불확실성 모델링 방법을 접목시킬 것인지에 대한 연구도 중요할 것이다.

Keywords

References

  1. American Institute of Steel Construction, AISC (1998), Load and resistance factored design. Manual of Steel Construction, Vol. 1.
  2. Architectural Institute of Japan, AIJ (1985) Design recommendations for composite constructions. Tokyo.
  3. Bayes, T. (1763) An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. Phil. Trans.;53: 370-418. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstl.1763.0053
  4. Bernoulli, J. (1713) Ars conjectandi, opus posthumum. Accedit Tractatus de seriebus infinitis, et epistola gallice scripta de ludo pilae reticularis, Basel: Thurneysen Brothers.
  5. Canadian Standard Association, CSA (1994) Limit state design of steel structures, CAN/CSA-S16.1-94, Clause 18, Rexdale, Ontario.
  6. DeMoiver, A. (1718) The Doctrine of Chances, London.
  7. Dempster, A.P. (1967) Upper and lower probability inferences based on a sample from a finite univariate population. Biometrika; 54: 515-28. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/54.3-4.515
  8. Dubois, D., Prade, H. (1988) Possibility theory, an approach to computerized processing of uncertainty. USA: Plenum Press.
  9. Han, T.H., Kim, J.J. (2015) An Alternative Perspective to Resolve Modeling Uncertainty in Reliability Analysis for D/t Limitation Models of CFST. J. Comput. Struct. Eng.; 28(4): 11-17.
  10. Kim, J.J., Reda Taha, M.M., Ross, T.J. (2010) Establishing concrete cracking strength interval using possibility theory with an application to predict the possible reinforced concrete deflection interval, Eng. Struct. 32, 3592-3600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2010.08.003
  11. Kim, J.J., Reda Taha, M.M., Noh, H.-C., Ross, T.J. (2013) Reliability Analysis to Resolve Difficulty in Choosing from Alternative Defelction Models of RC Beams, Mechanical System and Signal Processing. 37, 240-252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ymssp.2012.06.024
  12. Klir, G.J. (2006) Uncertainty and information. USA: John Wiley and Sons.
  13. Klir, G.J., Yuan, B. (1995) Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic, Theory and Applications, Prentice Hall, USA.
  14. Laplace, P. S. (1774). Memoir on the probability of causes of events. Memoires de Mathematique et de Physique, Tome Sixieme. (English translation by S. M. Stigler 1986. Statist. Sci., 1(19): 364-378). https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177013621
  15. Lukasiewicz, J. (1930) Philosophische Bemerkungen zu mehrwertigen Systemen des Aussagenkalkuls, Comptes rendus de la Societe des Sciences et des Lettres de Varsovie, cl. iii, 23, 51-77. Translation: Philosophical remarks on many-valued systems of propositional logic, in PL, 40-65, and in SW, 153-78.
  16. Melchers, R.E. (1999) Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, John Wiley & Sons, USA.
  17. Ross T.J. (1995) Fuzzy logic with engineering applications. 3rd ed (2010). Chichester (UK): John Wiley and Sons.
  18. Shafer, G. (1976) Mathematical theory of evidence. USA: Princeton University Press.
  19. Zadeh, L. (1965) Fuzzy sets, Inf. Control;8: 338-353 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X