Journal of Wetlands Research (한국습지학회지)

Korean Wetlands Society (한국습지학회)
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The Study of Adaptable Plant Species to the Change of Warmth Index by Using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios in Seoul City

RCP4.5와 8.5 시나리오를 이용한 온량지수 변화에 따른 서울시 적응 가능한 식물종 연구

  • Received : 2014.09.25
  • Accepted : 2015.05.27
  • Published : 2015.08.31
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Abstract

This study suggested the adaptable plant species according to the change of warmth index (WI) through the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 & 8.5 climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2099 in Seoul areas. From the scenario analysis results, we expected to change from the cool temperate souther forest zone to the warm temperate forest zone. We found the following adaptable 27 plant species: 6 species in the tree layer, Quercus serrata, Q. variabilis, Pinus densiflora, Q. acutissima, Styrax japonica and P. thunbergii etc.; 7 species in the shrub layer, Ligustrum obtusifolium, Lespedeza maximowiczii, Rhus trichocarpa, Callicarpa japonica, Rubus crataegifolius, Rosa multiflora, and Zanthoxylum piperitum etc.; 3 species in the herb layer, Oplismenus undulatifolius, Pteridium aquilinum var. latiusculum, and Commelina communis ect;, 11 species in the vine plants Smilax china, Cocculus trilobus, Parthenocissus tricuspidata, Lonicera japonica, Paederia scandens, Celastrus orbiculatus, Clematis apiifolia, Rubus parvifolius, Dioscorea batatas, Hydrangea serrata for. acuminata, Zelkova serrata etc.

본 연구는 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 이용하여 서울시 온량지수 변화를 추정하였으며, 이에 따른 적응 가능한 식물종을 제안하였다. 기후변화 시나리오에 따라 서울시의 온량지수 변화의 차이는 있었으나 냉온대 남부림에서 난온대림으로 변화할 것으로 예상된다. 2010년부터 2099년까지 서울시 온량지수 분포변화를 예측한 결과에 따른 적응 가능한 식물종은 교목층에 졸참나무, 굴참나무, 소나무, 상수리나무, 때죽나무, 곰솔 등 6종이었으며, 관목층에는 쥐똥나무, 조록싸리, 개옻나무, 작살나무, 산딸기, 찔레꽃, 초피나무 등 7종이었고, 초본층은 주름조개풀, 고사리, 닭의 장풀 등 3종, 덩굴성식물에는 청미래덩굴, 댕댕이덩굴, 담쟁이덩굴, 인동, 계요등, 노박덩굴, 사위질빵, 멍석딸기, 마, 으름, 마삭줄 등, 등 11종을 포함하여 총 27종이 공통적으로 기후변화 시나리오에 따라 온량지수의 변화에도 적응 가능할 것으로 예상된다.

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