Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction (한국건축시공학회지)

The Korean Institute of Building Construction (한국건축시공학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Influence Factors Suggestion and Prediction Model Development of Regional Building Damage Costs according to Typhoon

태풍에 따른 지역별 건물피해액에 영향을 미치는 요인 도출 및 피해 예측모델 개발

  • Kim, Ji-myung (Global Loss Control Center, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co. Ltd.) ;
  • Kim, Boo-Young (School of Architectural Engineering, University of Ulsan) ;
  • Yang, Seongpil (School of Architectural Engineering, University of Ulsan) ;
  • Oh, Jeongill (Department of Defense Aquisition Program, Kwangwoon University) ;
  • Son, Kiyoung (School of Architectural Engineering, University of Ulsan)
  • Received : 2015.06.23
  • Accepted : 2015.08.06
  • Published : 2015.10.20
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Currently, according to the climate change, serious damage by typhoon has been occurred in the world. In this respect, the research on the prediction model to minimize the damage from various natural disaster has been conducted in several developed countries. In the case of U.S, various models to predict building damage costs have been used widely in many organizations such as insurance companies and governments. In South Korea, although studies regarding damage prediction model according to typhoon have been conducted, the scope has been only limited to consider the property of typhoon. However, it is necessary to consider various factors such as typhoon information, geography, construction environment, and socio-economy factors to predict the damages. Therefore, to address this issue, first, correlation analysis is conducted between various variables based on the data of typhoon from 2003 to 2012. Second, the damage prediction model by using regression analysis is developed based on suggested influence factors. The findings of this study can be utilized to develop the model for predicting the damage costs of buildings by typhoon like HAZUS-MH of US.

최근 세계적으로 기후 변화에 따라 태풍으로 인한 피해규모가 커지고 가속화되어 많은 피해를 받고 있는 중이다. 이에 몇몇 선진국의 경우, 태풍을 포함하여 다양한 자연재해로부터 건물에 미치는 손상을 최소한으로 하기 위해 건축물 피해액 사전예측 모델에 관한 연구가 진행되고 있는 추세이다. 하지만, 국내에서는 외국에서 개발된 프로그램을 사용하기에는 태풍의 크기나 영향력에서 많은 차이가 나므로 국내의 특성에 적합한 모델이 필요한 실정이다. 또한, 국내의 연구들은 태풍의 특성만을 고려하여 진행되고 있으나 태풍은 폭우와 강풍을 동반하는 복합재해로서 태풍의 특성뿐만 아니라 지리, 사회경제, 건설환경 등 다양한 요인을 고려하여야 한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 태풍에 따른 지역별 건물피해액 영향요인을 도출하고 회귀분석을 활용한 건물피해액 예측모델 개발을 목적으로 한다. 향후 본 연구의 결과는 미국의 HAZUS -MH와 같이 국내에서 태풍에 따른 피해를 예측하기 위한 모델 개발을 위한 자료로 활용될 것이다.

Keywords

References

  1. Typhoon resource [Internet]. Seoul(Korea): Korea Meteorological Administration. 2003 - 2012 [cited 2014 Feb 2]. Available from: http://www.typ.kma.go.kr.
  2. National Disaster Administration [Internet]. Seoul(Korea): National Disaster Information Center. 2003 - 2012 [cited 2014 Mar 7]. Available from: http://www.safekorea.go.kr.
  3. Typhoon information [Internet]. Seoul(Korea): Korea Meteorological Administration. 2003 - 2012 [cited 2014 Feb 23]. Available from: http://www.kma.go.kr.
  4. Korean Statistical Information Service [Internet]. Daejeon(Korea): KOSIS. 2003 - 2012 [cited 2014 Mar 18] Available from: http://www.kosis.kr.
  5. Cutter SL, Barnes L, Berry M, Burton C, Evans E, Tate E, Webb J. A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change. 2008 Oct;18(4):598-606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.07.013
  6. Peacock WG, Brody SD. Highfield W. Hurricane risk perceptions among Florida's single family homeowners. Landscape and Urban Planning. 2005 Oct;73(2):120-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2004.11.004
  7. Tate E, Cutter SL, Berry M. Integrated multi hazard mapping. Environ Plan B. 2010 Mar;37(4):646-663. https://doi.org/10.1068/b35157
  8. Burton C. Social vulnerability and hurricane impact modeling. Natural Hazards Review. 2010 May;11(2):58-68. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2010)11:2(58)
  9. Brody SD, Zahran S, Highfield WE, Grover H, Vedlitz A. Identifying the impact of the built environment on flood damage in Texas. Disasters. 2008 Mar;32(1):1-18. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2007.01024.x
  10. Ryu SI, Namkung ST. Comparative review of disaster management act in Korea and advanced countries. Korean Review of Crisis & Emergency Management. 2013 Jan;19(1):131-156.
  11. Jeong HM, The establishment of department of homeland security and its influence on national response system in the U.S.. Public Law Research. 2015 Feb;16(1):27-45.
  12. Nemoto M. Disaster management system of local government and role of social economic organization. Korean Review of Crisis & Emergency Management. 2012 Feb;11(2):49-69.
  13. Kim YJ, Won JS. Disaster-zero disaster prevention for Seoul. Policy Report. 2008 Nov;25(1):2-21
  14. Lee SI. A study on damage scale prediction by rainfall and wind velocity with typhoon [dissertation]. [Sunchon(Korea)]: Sunchon National University; 2013. 80 p.
  15. Lee SS, Chang EM. Application of GIS to typhoon risk assessment. Korea Spatial Information Society. 2009 Jul;17(2):243-249.
  16. Kim JS. On the characteristics of damage scale and risk management system by strong wind speed of typhoon [dissertation]. [Gimhae(Korea)]: Inje University; 2013. 110 p.
  17. Jeon HD, Park MJ, Kim KY. Damage analysis of meteorological disasters for each district considering the characteristics of a district. Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation. 2008 Apr;8(2):75-82.
  18. Lee DY, Kim IJ. A study on typhoon damage prevention measures about the facility of the rural areas. Korean Institute of Rural Architecture. 2012 Nov; 14(4):117-124.
  19. Annual Natural Disaster Report [Internet]. Seoul(Korea) : National Emergency Management Agency. 2003 - 2012 [cited 2014 Feb 15]. Available from: http://www.nema. go.kr.