Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Trend Analysis of Projected Climate Data based on CMIP5 GCMs for Climate Change Impact Assessment on Agricultural Water Resources

농업수자원 기후변화 영향평가를 위한 CMIP5 GCMs의 기후 전망자료 경향성 분석

  • Yoo, Seung-Hwan (Department of Rural and Bio-Systems Engineering, Chonnam National University) ;
  • Kim, Taegon (Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota) ;
  • Lee, Sang-Hyun (Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University) ;
  • Choi, Jin-Yong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, and Research Institute for Agriculture & Life Sciences, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2015.05.06
  • Accepted : 2015.05.27
  • Published : 2015.09.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The majority of projections of future climate come from Global Circulation Models (GCMs), which vary in the way they were modeled the climate system, and so it produces different projections about conceptualizing of the weather system. To implement climate change impact assessment, it is necessary to analyze trends of various GCMs and select appropriate GCM. In this study, climate data in 25 GCMs 41 outputs provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was downscaled at eight stations. From preliminary analysis of variations in projected temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration, five GCM outputs were identified as candidates for the climate change impact analysis as they cover wide ranges of the variations. Also, GCM outputs are compared with trends of HadGCM3-RA, which are established by the Korean Meteorological Administration. From the results, it can contribute to select appropriate GCMs and to obtain reasonable results for the assessment of climate change.

Keywords

References

  1. Alcamo, J., M. Florke, and M, Marker, 2007. Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes. Hydrological Sciences Journal 52(3): 247-275. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.2.247
  2. Allen, R. G., L. S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. Smith, 1998. Crop Evapotranspiration: Guidelines for Computing Crop Requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage. Paper No. 56. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
  3. Chung, S. O., 2012. Projection of paddy rice consumptive use in the major plains of the Korean peninsula under the RCP scenarios. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineer. 54(5): 35-41 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2012.54.5.035
  4. Dubrovsky, M., M. Hayes, P. Duce, M. Trnka, M. Svoboda, and P. Zara, 2014. Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region. Regional Environmental Change 14(5): 1907-1919. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0562-z
  5. Fung, F., A. Lopez, and M. New, 2011. Water availability in +2C and +4C worlds. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 369(1934): 99-116. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0293
  6. Ho, C. K., D. B. Stephenson, M. Collins, C. A. T. Ferro, and S. J. Brown, 2012. A source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(1): 21-26. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3110.1
  7. Hong, E. M., J. Y. Choi, S. H. Lee, S. H. Yoo, and M. S. Kang, 2009. Estimation of paddy rice evapotranspiration considering climate change using LARS-WG. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 51(3): 25-35 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2009.51.3.025
  8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013a. Summary for Policy makers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
  9. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013b. Technical Report, In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
  10. McMahon, T. A., M. C. Peel, and D. J. Karoly, 2015. Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19(1): 361-377. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-361-2015
  11. Nam, W. H., E. M. Hong, J. Y. Choi, J. Cho and, M. J. Hayes, 2015. Uncertainty characteristics in future prediction of agrometeorological indicators using a climatic water budget approach. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 57(2): 1-13 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2015.57.2.001
  12. National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), 2009. Understanding of Climate Change (II) -Climate change in the Korean Peninsula: Present and future- (in Korean).
  13. National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), 2011. Climate change scenario report for IPCC AR5 (in Korean).
  14. No, S. H., K. S. Jung, J. H. Park, and K. S. Ryoo, 2013. Water Supply Change Outlook for Geum River Basin Considering RCP Climate Change Scenario, Korea Water Resources Association 46(5): 505-517 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.5.505
  15. Oh, S. G., and M. S. Suh, 2013. Projection of Fine-Scale Climate Changes over South Korea Based on the RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) Scenarios Using RegCM4, Journal of Climate Research 8(4): 297-307 (in Korean).
  16. Park, J. Y., H. Jung, C. H. Jang, and S. J. Kim, 2014. Assessing Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Components of Yongdam Dam Watershed Using RCP Emission Scenarios and SWAT Model. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 56(3): 19-29 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2014.56.3.019
  17. Park, N. Y., J. Y Choi, S. H. Yoo, and S. H. Lee, 2013. Assessment of Anti-Drought Capacity for Agricultural Reservoirs using RCP Scenarios, Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 55(3): 13-24 (in Korean).
  18. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2011. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(4): 485-498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
  19. van Vuuren, D. P., J. Edmonds, M. Kainuma, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, K. Hibbard, G. C. Hurtt, T. Kram, V. Krey, J. F. Lamarque, T. Masui, M. Meinshausen, N. Nakicenovic, S. J. Smith, and S. K. Rose, 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change 109: 5-31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
  20. Vorosmarty, C. J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, and R. B. Lammers, 2000. Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289(5477): 284-288. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284
  21. Yoo, S. H., J. Y. Choi, S. H. Lee, Y. G. Oh, and N. Y. Park, 2012a. The impacts of climate change on paddy water demand and unit duty of water using highresolution climate scenarios. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 54(2): 15-26 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2012.54.2.015
  22. Yoo, S. H., J. Y. Choi, W. H. Nam, and E. Hong, 2012b. Analysis of design water requirement of paddy rice using frequency analysis affected by climate change in South Korea, Agricultural Water Management 112: 33-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2012.06.002
  23. Yoo, S. H., J. Y. Choi, S. H. Lee, Y. G. Oh, D. K. Yun, 2013. Climate change impacts on water storage requirements of an agricultural reservoir considering changes in land use and rice growing season in Korea. Agricultural Water Management 117: 43-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2012.10.023