Journal of Environmental Science International (한국환경과학회지)

The Korean Environmental Sciences Society (한국환경과학회)
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Deceasing Trend of Summertime TC Frequency in Japan

여름철 일본에 영향을 주는 태풍빈도의 감소추세

  • Choi, Jae-Won (Policy Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Research) ;
  • Park, Ki-Jun (Policy Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Research) ;
  • Lee, Kyungmi (Policy Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Research) ;
  • Kim, Jeoung-Yun (Policy Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Research) ;
  • Kim, Baek-Jo (Policy Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Research)
  • 최재원 (국립기상연구소 정책연구과) ;
  • 박기준 (국립기상연구소 정책연구과) ;
  • 이경미 (국립기상연구소 정책연구과) ;
  • 김정윤 (국립기상연구소 정책연구과) ;
  • 김백조 (국립기상연구소 정책연구과)
  • Received : 2015.01.23
  • Accepted : 2015.02.25
  • Published : 2015.07.31
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Abstract

This study analyzed the climate regime shift using statistical change-point analysis on the time-series tropical cyclone (TC) frequency that affected Japan in July to September. The result showed that there was a significant change in 1995 and since then, it showed a trend of rapidly decreasing frequency. To determine the reason for this, differences between 1995 to 2012 (9512) period and 1978 to 1994 (7894) period were analayzed. First, regarding TC genesis, TCs during the 9512 period showed a characteristic of genesis from the southeast quadrant of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and TCs during the 7894 period showed their genesis from the northwest quadrant. Regarding a TC track, TCs in the 7894 period had a strong trend of moving from the far east sea of the Philippines via the East China Sea to the mid-latitude region in East Asia while TCs in the 9512 period showed a trend of moving from the Philippines toward the southern part of China westward. Thus, TC intensity in the 7894 period, which can absorb sufficient energy from the sea as they moved a long distance over the sea, was stronger than that of 9512. Large-scale environments were analyzed to determine the cause of such difference in TC activity occurred between two periods. During the 9512 period, anomalous cold and dry anticyclones were developed strongly in the East Asia continent. As a result, Korea and Japan were affected by the anomalous northerlies thereby preventing TCs in this period from moving toward the mid-latitude region in East Asia. Instead, anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) were developed in the tropical western Pacific so that a high passage frequency from the Philippine to the south China region along the anomalous steering flows was revealed. The characteristics of the anomalous cold and dry anticyclone developed in the East Asia continent were also confirmed by the analysis of air temperature, relative humidity and sensible heat net flux showing that most regions in East Asia had negative values.

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References

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