Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Correlation Analysis and Growth Prediction between Climatic Elements and Radial Growth for Pinus koraiensis

잣나무 연륜생장과 기후요소와의 상관관계 분석 및 생장예측

  • Chung, Junmo (Forest Practice Research Center of Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Kim, Hyunseop (Forest Practice Research Center of Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Lee, Sangtae (Forest Practice Research Center of Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Lee, Kyungjae (Forest Practice Research Center of Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Kim, Meesook (Department of Forestry, environment and system, Kookmin University) ;
  • Chun, Yongwoo (Department of Forestry, environment and system, Kookmin University)
  • 정준모 (국립산림과학원 산림생산기술연구소) ;
  • 김현섭 (국립산림과학원 산림생산기술연구소) ;
  • 이상태 (국립산림과학원 산림생산기술연구소) ;
  • 이경재 (국립산림과학원 산림생산기술연구소) ;
  • 김미숙 (국민대학교 삼림과학대학 산림환경시스템학과) ;
  • 전영우 (국민대학교 삼림과학대학 산림환경시스템학과)
  • Received : 2015.03.30
  • Accepted : 2015.04.11
  • Published : 2015.06.30
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Abstract

This study was conducted to analyze the relationship among climatic factors and radial growth of Pinus koraiensis in South Korea. To determine climate-growth relationships, cluster analysis was applied to group climatically similar surveyed regions, and dendroclimatological model was developed to predict radial growth for each climate group under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for greenhouse gases. The dendroclimatological models were developed through climatic variables and standardized residual chronology for each climatic cluster of P. koraiensis. 2 to 4 climatic variables were used in the models ($R^2$ values between 0.35~0.49). For each of the climatic clusters for Pinus koraiensis, the growth simulations obtained from two RCP climate-change scenarios were used for growth prediction. The radial growth of the Clusters 2 and 3, which grow at high elevation, tend to increase. In contrast, Cluster 1, which grows at low elevation, tends to decrease with a large difference. Thus, the growth of Pinus koraiensis, which is a boreal species, could increase along with increasing temperature up to a certain point.

본 연구는 잣나무를 대상으로 연륜생장과 기후와의 관계를 구명하기 위해 군집분석을 통해 기후 군집을 분류하였고 기후인자에 의해 연륜생장을 예측할 수 있는 생장모델을 개발하여 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 이용하여 연륜생장의 변화를 예측하였다. 연륜기후학적 모델은 잣나무 기후군집별 기후변수와 표준화된 잔차 연대기를 이용하여 개발하였다. 개발된 생장지수 추정식에는 2~4개의 기후변수가 사용되었고 결정계수는 0.35~0.49의 범위에 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 잣나무 기후군집별 생장예측은 두 개의 RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 이용해 예측되었다. 해발고도가 높은 곳에 위치한 군집 2와 군집 3에서는 연륜생장이 증가하였지만 대조적으로 해발고도가 낮은 지역에 위치한 군집 1에서는 연륜생장이 감소할 것으로 예측되었다. 따라서 잣나무는 한대수종이지만 일정범위내의 기온 상승 조건에서는 연륜생장이 증가하는 것으로 평가되었다.

Keywords

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