Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning (농촌계획)

Korean Society of Rural Planning (한국농촌계획학회)
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Analysis of Land Use Change Using RCP-Based Dyna-CLUE Model in the Hwangguji River Watershed

RCP 시나리오 기반 Dyna-CLUE 모형을 이용한 황구지천 유역의 토지이용변화 분석

  • Kim, Jihye (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Jihoon (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Song, Inhong (Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Song, Jung-Hun (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jun, Sang Min (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kang, Moon Seong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, Research Institute for Agricultural and Life Sciences, Seoul National University)
  • 김지혜 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 박지훈 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 송인홍 (서울대학교 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 송정헌 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 전상민 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 강문성 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부, 서울대학교 농업생명과학연구원)
  • Received : 2015.01.28
  • Accepted : 2015.06.10
  • Published : 2015.06.30
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Abstract

The objective of this study was to predict land use change based on the land use change scenarios for the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The land use change scenario was derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CLUE (conversion of land use and its effects) model was used to simulate the land use change. The CLUE is the modeling framework to simulate land use change considering empirically quantified relations between land use types and socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors through dynamical modeling. The Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea was selected as study area. Future land use changes in 2040, 2070, and 2100 were analyzed relative to baseline (2010) under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Binary logistic regressions were carried out to identify the relation between land uses and its driving factors. CN (Curve number) and impervious area based on the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed using the results of future land use changes. The land use change simulation of the RCP4.5 scenario resulted that the area of urban was forecast to increase by 12% and the area of forest was estimated to decrease by 16% between 2010 and 2100. The land use change simulation of the RCP8.5 scenario resulted that the area of urban was forecast to increase by 16% and the area of forest was estimated to decrease by 18% between 2010 and 2100. The values of Kappa and multiple resolution procedure were calculated as 0.61 and 74.03%. CN (III) and impervious area were increased by 0-1 and 0-8% from 2010 to 2100, respectively. The study findings may provide a useful tool for estimating the future land use change, which is an important factor for the future extreme flood.

Keywords

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