Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회논문집)

Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회)
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A Statistical Mobilization Criterion for Debris-flow

통계 분석을 통한 산사태 토석류 전이규준 모델

  • Received : 2015.05.06
  • Accepted : 2015.06.22
  • Published : 2015.06.30
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Abstract

Recently, landslide and debris-flow disasters caused by severe rain storms have frequently occurred. Many researches related to landslide susceptibility analysis and debris-flow hazard analysis have been conducted, but there are not many researches related to mobilization analysis for landslides transforming into debris-flow in slope areas. In this study, statistical analyses such as discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis were conducted to develop a mobilization criterion using geomorphological and geological factors. Ten parameters of geomorphological and geological factors were used as independent variables, and 466 cases (228 non-mobilization cases and 238 mobilization cases) were investigated for the statistical analyses. First of all, Fisher's discriminant function was used for the mobilization criterion. It showed 91.6 percent in the accuracy of actual mobilization cases, but homogeneity condition of variance and covariance between non-mobilization and mobilization groups was not satisfied, and independent variables did not follow normal distribution, either. Second, binomial logistic analysis was conducted for the mobilization criterion. The result showed 92.3 percent in the accuracy of actual mobilization cases, and all assumptions for the logistic analysis were satisfied. Therefore, it can be concluded that the mobilization criterion for debris-flow using binomial logistic regression analysis can be effectively applied for the prediction of debris-flow hazard analysis.

최근 들어 집중호우로 인한 산사태 및 토석류 피해가 종종 발생하고 있다. 이에 따라 산사태 재해 예측에 관한 연구 중 산사태 민감도 분석과 토석류 위험도 분석 관련 연구는 활발하게 진행되어 왔지만, 사면 지역에 적용하기 적합한 전이 분석 관련 연구는 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 판별분석과 로지스틱 회귀 분석과 같은 통계적 방법을 이용하여 실제 토석류가 발생했던 지역에서 추출한 지형학적 인자, 지질학적 인자 등을 토대로 토석류 전이규준을 제시하였다. 10개의 지형학적 및 지질학적 인자가 독립변수로 사용되었으며 실제 466개소(비전이: 228개소, 전이: 238개소)의 토석류 비전이 및 전이 데이터가 수집되었다. 우선, Fisher의 판별 분석이 수행되었으며, 수행 결과 실제경우와 91.6%의 분류 정확도를 보였다. 하지만 전이와 비전이 두 그룹간의 공분산 동질성이 만족되지 않았으며 또한 독립변수들이 정규분포를 보이지도 않았다. 두 번째로 이항 로지스틱 회귀분석이 수행되었으며, 분석 결과 92.3%의 분류 정확도를 나타냈으며 모든 통계적 조건들도 유의하게 나타났다. 따라서 이항 로지스틱 회귀 분석을 이용한 전이 규준은 토석류 재해 발생 여부를 예측하는데 효과적으로 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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