The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회 논문지)

The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회)
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Developing a Model to Predict Road Surface Temperature using a Heat-Balance Method, Taking into Traffic Volume

교통량을 고려한 열수지법에 의한 노면온도 예측모형의 구축

  • 손영태 (명지대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 전진숙 (명지대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 황준문 (경기연구원 휴먼교통연구실)
  • Received : 2014.12.29
  • Accepted : 2015.03.12
  • Published : 2015.04.30
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Abstract

In this study, to improve effectiveness of road management services and the safety of the road in winter, road surface temperature prediction model was developed. We have utilized the existing input data of meteorological data and additional traffic data. This Road surface temperature prediction model was utilizing a Heat-Balance Method additionally considering amount of traffic that produce heat radiation by vehicle-tire friction. This improved model was compared to the based model to check into influence of traffic affecting the road surface temperature. There were verified by comparing the real observed road surface temperature of the third Gyeong-In highway and road surface temperature from the two models. As a result, the error of real observed and the predicted value (RMSE) was found to average $1.97^{\circ}C$. Observed road surface temperature was dramatically affected by the sunlight from 6 a.m. to 2 p.m. and degree of influence decreases after that. The predictive value of the model is lower than the observed value in the afternoon, and higher at night. These results appear due to the shielding of solar radiation caused by the vehicle in the afternoon and at night, the vehicle appeared to cause thermal heat supply.

본 연구는 동절기 도로관리서비스 향상과 도로의 안전성을 제고하기 위하여, 기존의 입력자료인 기상자료와 더불어 추가적으로 교통자료를 적용하여 노면온도를 예측할 수 있는 모형의 개발을 목표로 하였다. 노면온도 예측모형은 열수지법을 적용하였으며, 모형에서 교통량에 대한 고려는 차량 복사열, 타이어 마찰열로 구성하여 모형화하였다. 이 최종모형과 기상 조건을 기초로 한 초기 모형과 비교하여 노면온도에 미치는 교통량의 영향을 검토하였다. 제3경인고속도로의 실제 관측치과 두 모형에서 계산된 노면온도를 실제 노면온도 관측치와의 비교로 검증하였는데, 관측치와 예측치의 오차인 RMSE은 $1.97^{\circ}C$였다. 관측된 노면온도는 오전 6시부터 일사의 영향을 받아 급격히 상승하여 14시에 최대가되고, 그 후에는 감소한다. 모형 예측값은 관측값보다 오후에는 낮고, 야간에는 높게 나타났다. 이는 오후의 경우는 차량으로 인한 태양 복사열의 차폐, 야간의 경우는 차량열에 의한 열 공급이 주요 원인인 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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