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Global Carbon Budget Changes under RCP Scenarios in HadGEM2-CC

HadGEM-CC 모델의 RCP 시나리오에 따른 전지구 탄소수지 변화 전망

  • Heo, Tae-Kyung (National Institute of Meteorological Research) ;
  • Boo, Kyung-On (National Institute of Meteorological Research) ;
  • Shim, Sungbo (National Institute of Meteorological Research) ;
  • Hong, Jinkyu (Ecosystem-Atmosphere Process Lab, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University) ;
  • Hong, Je-Woo (Ecosystem-Atmosphere Process Lab, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University)
  • Received : 2014.11.18
  • Accepted : 2015.02.25
  • Published : 2015.03.31
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Abstract

This study is to investigate future changes in carbon cycle using the HadGEM2-Carbon Cycle simulations driven by $CO_2$ emissions. For experiment, global carbon budget is integrated from the two (8.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the period of 1860~2100 by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (Had-GEM2-CC). From 1985 to 2005, total cumulative $CO_2$ amount of anthropogenic emission prescribed as 156 GtC. The amount matches to the observed estimates (CDIAC) over the same period (136 GtC). As $CO_2$ emissions into the atmosphere increase, the similar increasing tendency is found in the simulated atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and temperature. Atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration in the simulation is projected to be 430 ppm for RCP 2.6 at the end of the twenty-first century and as high as 931 ppm for RCP 8.5. Simulated global mean temperature is expected to rise by $1.6^{\circ}C$ and $3.5^{\circ}C$ for RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. Land and ocean carbon uptakes also increase in proportion to the $CO_2$ emissions of RCPs. The fractions of the amount of $CO_2$ stored in atmosphere, land, and ocean are different in RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Further study is needed for reducing the simulation uncertainty based on multiple model simulations.

Keywords

References

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