한국지구과학회지 (Journal of the Korean earth science society)

  • 제36권1호
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  • Pages.90-108
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  • 2015
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  • 1225-6692(pISSN)
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  • 2287-4518(eISSN)
한국지구과학회 (The Korean Earth Science Society)
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WRF-Chem 모델을 이용한 2010년 한반도의 황사 예측에 관한 연구

A Study on Prediction of Asian Dusts Using the WRF-Chem Model in 2010 in the Korean Peninsula

  • 정옥진 (한국교원대학교 제 3대학 환경교육과) ;
  • 문윤섭 (한국교원대학교 제 3대학 환경교육과)
  • Jung, Ok Jin (Department of Environmental Education, Korea National University of Education) ;
  • Moon, Yun Seob (Department of Environmental Education, Korea National University of Education)
  • 투고 : 2015.01.20
  • 심사 : 2015.02.26
  • 발행 : 2015.02.28
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초록

2010년 11월 11-13일 한반도에 영향을 미쳤던 황사에 대해 WRF-Chem 모델을 이용하여 시뮬레이션 하였다. WRF-Chem 모델에서 미세먼지의 인위적 배출량은 RETRO 전구 배출량을 사용하였고, RADM2 화학 메커니즘과 MADE/SORGAM 에어로졸 스킴 및 GOCART 광물성 먼지 옵션을, 그리고 Fast-J 광해리 스킴을 선택하여 $PM_{10}$ 농도를 시뮬레이션 하였는데 연구 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. WRF-Chem 모델 결과에 따른 $PM_{10}$ 농도의 공간적 분포와 연직 프로파일 분석결과 2010년 11월 11-13일에 우리나라에 영향을 미쳤던 황사는 강한 가을황사로 저기압의 발달로 인해 형성된 콤마구름 때문에 황사가 한랭전선 후면에서 갇혀 상공 2.5 km 이내에서 이동 및 유입됨을 알 수 있었다. 황사 발생 기간 동안 백령도와 서울의 기상청 관측 자료와 모델의 $PM_{10}$ 농도를 시계열로 분석한 결과 상관계수와 평균제곱근오차(RMSE)는 백령도의 경우 0.763과 $192.73{\mu}g/m^3$, 서울의 경우 0.725와 $149.68{\mu}g/m^3$로 나타났다. 미세먼지인 $PM_{10}$과 $PM_{2.5}$ 농도의 공간적 분포는 유사하였고 $PM_{2.5}$가 $PM_{10}$의 약 50% 정도로 나타났으며 이는 기상청 UM-ADAM 모델 결과와도 유사하였다. $PM_{10}$ 농도와 경계층 높이, 동서 성분 바람장의 공간적 분포는 유사성을 지니고 있어 두 개의 변수를 이용하여 $PM_{10}$의 농도를 예측하는 회귀 방정식을 구하고자 우리나라에 영향을 미쳤던 강한 가을 황사(2010년 11월 11-13일)와 봄 황사(2011년 3월 19-20일) 사례를 선정하였고, 통계 모델을 이용한 회귀식을 도출하였다.

The WRF-Chem model was applied to simulate the Asian dust event affecting the Korean Peninsula from 11 to 13 November 2010. GOCART dust emission schemes, RADM2 chemical mechanism, and MADE/SORGAM aerosol scheme were adopted within the WRF-Chem model to predict dust aerosol concentrations. The results in the model simulations were identified by comparing with the weather maps, satellite images, monitoring data of $PM_{10}$ concentration, and LIDAR images. The model results showed a good agreement with the long-range transport from the dust source area such as Northeastern China and Mongolia to the Korean Peninsula. Comparison of the time series of $PM_{10}$ concentration measured at Backnungdo showed that the correlation coefficient was 0.736, and the root mean square error was $192.73{\mu}g/m^3$. The spatial distribution of $PM_{10}$ concentration using the WRF-Chem model was similar to that of the $PM_{2.5}$ which were about a half of $PM_{10}$. Also, they were much alike in those of the UM-ADAM model simulated by the Korean Meteorological Administration. Meanwhile, the spatial distributions of $PM_{10}$ concentrations during the Asian dust events had relevance to those of both the wind speed of u component ($ms^{-1}$) and the PBL height (m). We performed a regressive analysis between $PM_{10}$ concentrations and two meteorological variables (u component and PBL) in the strong dust event in autumn (CASE 1, on 11 to 23 March 2010) and the weak dust event in spring (CASE 2, on 19 to 20 March 2011), respectively.

키워드

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