Korean System Dynamics Review (한국시스템다이내믹스연구)

Korean System Dynamics Society (한국시스템다이내믹스학회)
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Alcoholic Process and System Dynamic Study of the Effects of Alcoholic Crime Forecast on Therapy programs

알코올중독 프로세스 및 치유프로그램이 음주범죄 예측에 미치는 영향에 관한 동적 연구

  • 이상재 (서울벤처대학원대학교 사회복지상담학과) ;
  • 변상해 (서울벤처대학원대학교 사회복지상담학과)
  • Received : 2015.08.30
  • Accepted : 2015.09.22
  • Published : 2015.09.30
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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to simulate drinking population, an alcoholic abuser and an alcoholic through therapy programs and system dynamic model. Then we try to research relationship between an alcoholic crime and related therapy programs. The results of the model simulation were consistently increased drinking population and 3 types drinkers until 2020 years. Specially the growth rate of drinking abusers will be passing that of a drinking population. Second, It showed clearly the decreasing effects of drinking crime on therapy programs(clinical treatment, preventive displine and counseling treatment). Finally, it will be positvely necessary the long-term and various alcoholic therapy program for reducing the ratio of drinking abusers and an alcoholic. In the second place, government and medical centers must be established a concrete information systems for collecting alcoholic datum.

Keywords

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