Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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An Outlook of Agricultural Drought in Jeonju Area under the RCP8.5 Projected Climate Condition

기후변화 시나리오에 근거한 전주지역의 농업가뭄 전망

  • 김대준 (경희대학교 식물환경신소재공학과) ;
  • 윤진일 (경희대학교 식물환경신소재공학과)
  • Received : 2015.10.15
  • Accepted : 2015.10.30
  • Published : 2015.12.30
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Abstract

In order to figure out the future drought characteristics of the Jeonju plains, the major crop production area in Korea, daily agricultural drought indexes based on soil water balance were calculated for the relevant 12.5 km by 12.5 km grid cell using the weather data generated by the RCP8.5 climate scenario during 1951-2100. The calculations were grouped into five climatological normal years, the past (1951-1980), the present (1981-2010), and the three futures (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the soil moisture conditions in early spring, worst for both the past and present normal years, will ameliorate gradually in the future and the crop water stress in spring season was projected to become negligible by the end of this century. Furthermore, the drought frequency in early spring was projected to diminish, resulting in rare occurrence of spring drought by that time. However, the result also showed that the soil moisture conditions during the summer season (when most crops grow in Jeonju plain) will deteriorate and the drought incidence will be more frequent than in the past or present period.

미래 기후조건에서 농업부문 가뭄양상을 전망하기 위해 우리나라 농업의 중심지인 전주지역을 대상으로 1951-2100 기간의 기후변화시나리오(RCP8.5) 일자료를 이용하여 토양의 물수지에 근거한 농업가뭄지수를 계산하였다. 계산결과는 과거(1951-1980), 현재(1981-2010), 그리고 3개의 미래 기후학적 평년기간(2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100)으로 분류하여 분석하였다. 그 결과 과거부터 현재까지 계절적으로 가장 부족한 이른봄의 토양수분은 점차 개선되어 금세기말이면 수분부족현상이 해소될 것으로 전망되며, 봄철 가뭄발생빈도 역시 지금보다 줄어들어 이른봄에는 가뭄이 거의 나타나지 않을 것이다. 반면 여름작물 생육기간에는 토양수분상태가 악화되며 가뭄발생빈도가 대체로 증가할 것으로 전망되었다.

Keywords

References

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