한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제48권12호
  • /
  • Pages.1037-1049
  • /
  • 2015
  • /
  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

돌발홍수 지수를 이용한 북한 홍수 위험도 평가 - 임진강 유역을 중심으로 -

An Assessment of Flooding Risk Using Flash Flood Index in North Korea - Focus on Imjin Basin -

  • Kwak, Chang Jae (Disaster Research Dept., National Disaster Management Institute) ;
  • Choi, Woo Jung (Disaster Research Dept., National Disaster Management Institute) ;
  • Cho, Jae Woong (Disaster Research Dept., National Disaster Management Institute)
  • 투고 : 2015.09.24
  • 심사 : 2015.10.23
  • 발행 : 2015.12.31
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

북한의 대규모 자연재난은 홍수와 태풍 그리고 집중호우로 인한 수해피해가 대부분이며 이러한 피해는 1990년대 중반부터 해마다 북한의 경제난을 악화시키고 있다. 북한 당국도 수해피해의 심각성을 인식하여, 1990년대 말부터 하천정리, 농경지 복구, 토지정리사업, 조림사업 등을 실시하였으나, 계속되는 수해피해를 막지 못하고 있다. 본 연구는 상습적으로 발생하는 북한의 홍수피해에 대한 위험도를 산정하기 위해 일반적인 위험도 평가과정은 동일하게 유지하되 대외적으로 수문자료 취득이 힘들고 지형자료가 공개되지 않은 미계측지역이라는 유역특성을 반영하여 강우-유출에 대한 모의를 추가적으로 실시하였다. 또한, 위험도 평가는 국제기구(IPCC)의 기준에 따라 홍수에 대한 위험성과 노출성, 취약성 인자들을 선정하여 홍수 위험도를 판단하였다.

The most of natural disasters that occur in North Korea are flood, typhoon and damage from heavy rain. The damage caused by those disasters since the mid-1990s is aggravating North Korea's economic difficulties every year. By recognizing the seriousness of the damages from the floods, the North Korean government has carried out the river maintenance, farmland restoration, land readjustment and afforestation projects since the last-1990s, but it has failed preventing the damages. In order to estimate the degree of flood risk regarding damage from chronic floods that occur inveterately in North Korea, this research conducted an additional simulation for rainfall-runoff analysis to reflect the characteristics of the ungauged area that make foreign countries hard to obtain the hydrological data and do not open the topographical data to public. In addition, this research estimates the degree of flood risk by selecting the factors of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability by following the standards of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Bhaskar, N.R., French, B.M., and Kyiamah, G.K. (2000). "Characterization of flash floods in Eastern Kentucky." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 327-331. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2000)5:3(327)
  2. CRED(Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters), http://www.cred.be/
  3. Dury, G.H. (1961). "Bankfull discharge: an example of its statistical relationships." International Association of Scientific Hydrology Bulletin, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 48-55. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626666109493230
  4. FEMA(Federal Emergency Management Agency). (2011). National flood insurance program: Flood insurance manual. Washington, DC., USA.
  5. GTK(Geological Survey of Finland). (2006). Project 1.3.1: The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazard in general and in relation to climate change. Final Report, European Spatial Planning Observation Network.
  6. Ham, D.H., Joo, J.G., Jun, H.D., Kim, J.H. (2008). "Study on Derivation of Fourth-Order GIUH and Revision of Initial State Probability." Journal of the Korean Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 229-239. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.2.229
  7. Henderson, F.M. (1961). "Stability of alluvial channels." Journal of Hydraulics Division-ASCE, Vol. 87, pp. 109-138.
  8. Hey, R.D. (1994). "Restoration of gravel-bed rivers: Principles and practice." Natural Channel Design: Perspectives and Practice, Canadian Water Resources Association, Cambridge, Ont., pp. 157-173.
  9. IFRC(International Fedeation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies), http://www.ifrc.org/
  10. Im, C.S., Lee, J.H., Kim, T.H., Lee, J.C., and Yoon, S.E. (2006). "A dominant discharge estimate for channel characteristics quantity survey." Proceedings 2006 Annual Conference, KWRA, pp. 66-71.
  11. Jain, A., Nandakumar, K., and Ross, A. (2005). "Score normalization in multimodal biometric systems." Pattern Recognition, Vol. 38, pp. 2270-2285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patcog.2005.01.012
  12. Jo, D.J., Son, I.O., Choi, H.I., (2013). "Development of a New Flood Index for Local Flood Severity Predictions." Journal of the Korean Water Resources Association, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 47-58.
  13. Jung, J.C. (2000). "The study on estimation of the flash flood index for the Bo-chunRiverbasin." MS. Thesis, Suwon University, Korea.
  14. Kim, B.S., and Kim, H.S. (2008). "Estimation of the Flash Flood Severity using Runoff Hydrograph and Flash Flood Index." Journal of the Korean Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 185-196. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.2.185
  15. Kim, E.S., Choi, H.I., and Jee, H.K. (2010). "Estimation of the flash flood index by the probable rainfall data for ungauged catchments." Journal of the Korean Society ofHazard Mitigation, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 81-88.
  16. Kim, E.S., Choi, H.I., Lee, D.E., and Kang, D.J. (2009). "Estimation of the flash flood severity using flash flood index." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 9, No. 6, pp. 125-131.
  17. Kim, E.S., Jang, H.Y., Kim, S.D., Park, M.S., and Choi, H.I. (2012). "Analysis of rainfall-flood severity relations in small ungauged catchments." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 199-208. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2012.12.2.199
  18. Kim, J.H., and Kim, Y.H. (2003). "Improving potential flood damage." Proceedings 2003 Annual Conference, KSCE, pp. 2373-2378.
  19. Kron, W. (2003). Flood risk=hazard$\times$exposure$\times$ vulnerability. Flood Defence, Edited by Wu et al., Science Press, New York. N.Y., pp. 82-97.
  20. Lee, H.C., and Lee, E.T. (2003). "A study on the channel forming discharge estimation and the hydraulic geometry characteristics of the alluvial stream." Journal of the Korean Water Resources Association, Vol. 36, No.5, pp. 823-838. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2003.36.5.823
  21. Leopold, L.B. (1994). A view of the river. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, USA.
  22. McCall, W.A. (1923). "Science of Education." The Journal of Educational Research, Vol. 7, No. 5, pp. 384-396. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220671.1923.10879367
  23. Merabtene, T., Yoshitani, J., and Kuribayashi, D. (2004). Managing Flood and Water-related Risks: A challenge for the future. AOGS 2004 Joint 1st Annual Meeting & 2nd APHWConference, Singapore, pp. 1-8.
  24. MLTM(Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs). (2001). "Water vision 2020."
  25. Ologunorisa, E.T. (2004). "An assessment of flood vulnerability zones in the Niger Delta." International Journal of Environmental Studies, Vol. 61, No. 1, pp. 31-38. https://doi.org/10.1080/0020723032000130061
  26. Park, S.Y., Lee, Y.G., and Kim, S.W. (2010). "Flood Damage of North Korea and Prevention Masure." Proceedings 2010 Annual Conference, KWRA, pp. 1867-1872.
  27. Riley, A.L. (1998). Restoring streams in cities : a guide for planners, policy makers and citizens. Island press, Washington, D.C., USA.
  28. Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., and Valdes, J. (1979) "The Geomorphologic Structure of Hydrologic Response." Water Resources Research, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp. 1409-1420. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR015i006p01409
  29. UNDP(United Nations Development Programme). (2004). "Reducing disaster risk : A challenge for development." New York, NY., USA.
  30. UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). (2004). Living with risk : A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Geneva. Swiss.
  31. UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). (2009). 2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction.
  32. Wi, S.W., Chung, G.H., and Kim, T.W. (2008). "Development of a Comprehensive Flood Index through Standardizing Distributions of Runoff Characteristics." Journal of the Korean Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 6, pp. 605-617. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.6.605
  33. Williams, G.P. (1978). "Bankfull discharge of rivers." Water Resources Research, Vol. 14, No. 6, pp. 1141- 1154. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR014i006p01141