Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy

  • 제3권2호
  • /
  • Pages.172-192
  • /
  • 2014
  • /
  • 2287-1608(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2287-1616(eISSN)
아시아기술혁신학회 (Asian Society for Innovation and Policy)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Market Valuation of Technology Firms in KOSDAQ

  • 투고 : 2014.09.30
  • 심사 : 2014.10.20
  • 발행 : 2014.11.01
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

This study aims to analyze the valuation of technology firms in the stock market to answer how before-market entities should be valuated. This study analyzes 230 market reports of 2012 for technology firms in the KOSDAQ under several hypotheses. The results are as follows: 90% used the 3 multiples methods consisting of PER multiples with 80%, PBR multiples 8.7% and EBITDA multiples 1.7%. The average of PER multiples was 15 with the range of 6.9 to 83. That of PBR multiples is 2.27. Forecasting for cash flow is not applied over 4 years, but mainly 2-3 years. The accuracy of forecasting was 18.8%, 34.4% and 8% according to the different definitions. No differences were found in the accuracy of forecasting between valuation methods, between the industries having more intangible assets and the industries having less, and between startups and general companies and between ages and listed ages.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Ahn, Y.Y., Shin, H.H. and Jang, J.H. (2005) Relationship between Reputation and Performance of Financial Analysts and Determinants of Reputation: An Analysis of Best Analysts, Proceedings for Conference of Korea Accounting Association, 81-107.
  2. Baek, W.S. (2003) Determinants of price differentiation between ICT firms and nonfinancial manufacturing, Accounting Studies, 28(2), 49-74. (in Korean)
  3. Bradshaw, M.T. and Brown, L.D. (2006) Do Sell-Side Analysts Exhibit Differential Target Price Forecasting Ability? Working Paper, Harvard Business School.
  4. Brav, A. and Lehavy, R. (2003) An empirical analysis of analysts' target prices: shortterm informativeness and long-term dynamics, Journal of Finance, 58(5), 1933-1967. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00593
  5. Clement, M.B. (1999) Analyst forecast accuracy: do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter? Journal of Accounting Economics, 27(3), 285-303. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4101(99)00013-0
  6. Kang, I.J., Yoo, Y.G. and Moon, B.Y. (2012) An empirical analysis on the accuracy of stock price valuation using multiples method, Journal of Accounting, 21(1), 2012.3., 237-257. (in Korean)
  7. Kim, D.H. and Kim, J.O. (2004) Valuation of startups using comparative analysis, Journal of the Korean Academic Association of Business Administration, 47, 2623-2646. (in Korean)
  8. Kim, D.S., Eom, S.S. and Seok, J.H. (2011) Accuracy and variance in earning forecasting by analysts: a comparison of high-tech and low-tech firms, Studies of Corporate Management, 37, 127-141. (in Korean)
  9. Kim, M.C., Jeon, Y.S. and Lee, B.B. (2011) A study on the continuity and stock price reaction of analyst's ability on target price forecasting, Journal of Taxation and Accounting, 12, 43-73. (in Korean)
  10. Kim, S.G., Lee, J.D. and Kim, T.Y. (2000) Valuation of KOSDAQ Startups Using Real Options, Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference, 11. (in Korean)
  11. Jacob, J., Lys, T. and Neale, M. (1999) Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 28(1), 51-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4101(99)00016-6
  12. Feltham, G.A. and Ohlson, J.A. (1995) Valuation and clean surplus accounting for operating and financial activities, Contemporary Accounting Research 11, 689-732. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1995.tb00462.x
  13. Gleason, W., Johnson, B. and Li, H. (2008) Valuation Model Use and the Price Target Performance of Sell-Side Equity Analysts, Working Paper, University of Iowa.
  14. Fernandez, P. (2001) Valuation Using Multiples: How Do Analysts Reach Their Conclusion? SSRN Working Paper, 6.
  15. Fernandez, P., Linares, P. and Acin, I.F. (2014) Market risk premium used in 88 countries in 2014: A survey with 8,228 answers, IESE Business School, June 20.
  16. Hong, D.H. and Hwang, J.H. (2012) Accuracy of Analysts' Forecast in Aviation Industry and Investment Performance, Proceedings for Spring Conference, 61-68, Aviation Management Society of Korea. (in Korean)
  17. Jeffrey, L.C. and Segal, D. (2005) Empirical tests of the Feltham-Ohlson (1995) Model, Review of Accounting Studies, 10, 409-429. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-005-4208-3
  18. Ju, B.C. (2011) A Valuation of KOSDAQ ventures using real options, Journal of Industrial Economics, 24(2), 1027-1048. (in Korean)
  19. Lee, D.S. and Jeong, K.H. (2011) Valuation on the photovoltaic core material technology using Black-Scholes model: a company's case study, Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society, 14(3), 578-598. (in Korean)
  20. Lee, J.C. and Oh, U.R. (2004) On differences in explanatory power (propriety, fitness, validity) of alternative equity valuation models depending on a firm's characteristics: focusing on venture and non-venture firms of KOSDAQ, Journal of Accounting Research, 29(2), 157-185. (in Korean)
  21. Lee, W.H. and Choi, S.M. (2002) An empirical study of the low-PER, low-PBR and high-VAM effects based on price multiple valuation models, Korean Journal of Financial Studies, 31, 109-149. (in Korean)
  22. Liu, J. and Ohlson, J.A. (2000) The Feltham-Ohlson (1995) Model: empirical implications, Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, 15, 321-331. (in Korean) https://doi.org/10.1177/0148558X0001500309
  23. Luehrman, T.A. (1998) Investment opportunities as real option: getting started on the numbers, Harvard Business Review, Jul 01, 1-14.
  24. Mikhail, M.B., Walther, B.R. and Willis, R.H. (1997) Do security analysts improve their performance with experience? Journal of Accounting Research, 35, 131-166. https://doi.org/10.2307/2491458
  25. Ohlson, J.A. (1995) Earnings, book values, and dividends in security valuation, Contemporary Accounting Research, 11(2), 661-687. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1995.tb00461.x
  26. Oh, J.M. (2013) The bias and efficiency of error ratio in multiples model, Journal of Taxation and Accounting, 14-1. (in Korean)
  27. Oh, J.M. and Kim, W.H. (2012) Coefficients in the supplementary valuation method, Korean Journal of Taxation Research, 29, 371-408. (in Korean)
  28. Oh, J.M. and Kim, W.H. (2011) A study on comparable company analysis for valuation of unlisted stocks in inheritance and gift tax, Korean Journal of Taxation Research, 28(3), 37-70. (in Korean)
  29. Seol, S.S. and Yoo, C.S. (2002) Real options for practitioners on the valuation of technology and investment, Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society, 5(1), 44-58. (in Korean)
  30. Seol, S.S., Oh, S.K. and Park, H.W. (2012) Valuation of Technology, Seoul: Bommunsa. (in Korean)

피인용 문헌

  1. Comparison of the Valuation of Technology Firms in KOSPI and KOSDAQ vol.4, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7545/ajip.2015.4.1.035