Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회지)

Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회)
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Enhancement of Land Load Estimation Method in TMDLs for Considering of Climate Change Scenarios

기후변화를 고려하기 위한 오염총량관리제 토지계 오염부하량 산정 방식 개선

  • Ryu, Jichul (National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Park, Yoon Sik (Agricultural Biological Engineering, Purdue University) ;
  • Han, Mideok (National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Ahn, Ki Hong (National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kum, Donghyuk (Regional Infrastructure Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lim, Kyoung Jae (Regional Infrastructure Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Park, Bae Kyung (National Institute of Environmental Research)
  • 류지철 (국립환경과학원 유역총량연구과) ;
  • 박윤식 ;
  • 한미덕 (국립환경과학원 유역총량연구과) ;
  • 안기홍 (국립환경과학원 유역총량연구과) ;
  • 금동혁 (강원대학교 지역건설공학과) ;
  • 임경재 (강원대학교 지역건설공학과) ;
  • 박배경 (국립환경과학원 유역총량연구과)
  • Received : 2014.02.18
  • Accepted : 2014.03.18
  • Published : 2014.03.30
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Abstract

In this study, a land pollutant load calculation method in TMDLs was improved to consider climate change scenarios. In order to evaluate the new method, future change in rainfall patterns was predicted by using SRES A1B climate change scenarios and then post-processing methods such as change factor (CF) and quantile mapping (QM) were applied to correct the bias between the predicted and the observed rainfall patterns. Also, future land pollutant loads were estimated by using both the bias corrected rainfall patterns and the enhanced method. For the results of bias correction, both methods (CF and QM) predicted the temporal trend of the past rainfall patterns and QM method showed future daily average precipitation in the range of 1.1~7.5 mm and CF showed it in the range of 1.3~6.8 mm from 2014 to 2100. Also, in the result of the estimation of future land pollutant loads using the enhanced method (2020, 2040, 2100), TN loads were in the range of 4316.6~6138.6 kg/day and TP loads were in the range of 457.0~716.5 kg/day. However, each result of TN and TP loads in 2020, 2040, 2100 was the same with the original method. The enhanced method in this study will be useful to predict land pollutant loads under the influence of climate change because it can reflect future change in rainfall patterns. Also, it is expected that the results of this study are used as a base data of TMDLs in case of applying for climate change scenarios.

Keywords

References

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  2. Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics on Bias Correction Method of Climate Change Scenarios vol.31, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.15681/KSWE.2015.31.3.241