Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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A Study of Driver's Response to Variable Message Sign Using Evolutionary Game Theory

진화 게임을 이용한 VMS 정보에 따른 운전자의 행태 연구

  • Kim, Joo Young (Integrated Urban Research Center, University of Seoul) ;
  • Na, Sung Yong (Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Lee, Seungjae (Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Kim, Youngho (Department of Transport Safety and Highway, The Korea Transport Institute)
  • 김주영 (서울시립대학교 융합도시연구센터) ;
  • 나성용 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 이승재 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 김영호 (한국교통연구원 교통안전도로본부)
  • Received : 2014.07.24
  • Accepted : 2014.10.23
  • Published : 2014.10.31
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Abstract

An objective of VMS(Variable Message Signs) is to make transportation system effective specifically for driver's path selection. The traffic solutions including a VMS problem can be modeled through Game Theory, however, the majority of the studies can not model various driver's response according to VMS information in game theory. So, this paper tries to analyze a driver's response according to VMS traffic informations through evolutionary game theory. We apply a behavior characteristics of driver to evolutionary game theory, then finds drivers are only accepting in case of the biggest pay-off, and if a traffic flow finds a balance over time, ratio of accepting information is converged as an evolutionary stable state gradually. Consequently, the strategy of the other drivers such as traffic problems can not be predicted accurately. In case, drivers repeat between groups and reasonable judgment by the experience, we expect that VMS can provide strategic information through evolutionary game theory.

VMS의 운영적인 제공 목표는 운전자들의 경로선택을 통한 효율적인 시스템을 운영하는 것이다. VMS 정보 제공문제를 포함한 교통문제들은 게임이론을 통해 모형화 될 수 있지만 대다수의 연구들은 게임이론을 통하여 동일한 정보를 제공받더라도 운전자의 반응이 다양하게 나타나는 점을 반영하지 못하였다. 본 연구는 VMS교통정보에 대한 운전자들의 정보에 대한 반응을 진화적 게임모형을 활용하여 분석하고자 하였다. 실제 소통정보 및 VMS 정보 제공이력을 기초로 VMS정보에 따른 운전자들의 행동특성을 진화 게임이론에 적용해보았다. 분석결과 운전자들의 경로선택 비율은 VMS정보를 통한 기대통행시간과 진입교통량에 따라 달라지는 보수에 의해 결정되었다. VMS 정보는 진화적 게임의 보수에 영향을 미친다. 운전자들이 최초 어떠한 비율로 경로를 선택하더라도, 주기가 지남에 따라 진화적으로 안정한 상태로 수렴될 수 있는 것을 확인하였다. 또한 VMS정보가 과도한 통행시간이나 과소 통행시간을 제공할 경우 진화적으로 안정화되지 못하여 혼란이 가중될 수 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 결론적으로 교통문제와 같이 다른 운전자의 전략을 정확히 예측할 수 없고, 운전자 집단 간의 반복, 경험에 의해 합리적인 정보판단을 수행하는 경우, 진화 게임이론을 통해 전략적인 VMS 정보를 제공할 수 있을 것이라 기대할 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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