한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제47권10호
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  • Pages.891-906
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  • 2014
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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한강수계 저수지군의 갈수대응 운영을 위한 Hedging Rule의 개발과 적용성 평가

Development and Assessment of Hedging Rule for Han River Reservoir System Operation against Severe Drought

  • 김정엽 (금강홍수통제소) ;
  • 박명기 (한국수자원공사 동남아사업단) ;
  • 이기하 (경북대학교 건설방재공학부) ;
  • 정관수 (충남대학교 공과대학 토목공학과)
  • Kim, Jeong Yup (Geum River Flood Control Office) ;
  • Park, Myung Ky (Southeast Asia Dept., Korea Water Resources Corporation) ;
  • Lee, Gi Ha (Dept. of Construction and Disaster Prevention Eng., Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Jung, Kwan Sue (Dept. of Civil Engrg., Chungnam National Univ.)
  • 투고 : 2014.01.01
  • 심사 : 2014.09.22
  • 발행 : 2014.10.31
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초록

본 연구는 수계관리 측면에서 물 공급의 기준이 되는 하류 제어지점에서 발생할 수 있는 물 부족을 최소 허용하면서 저수지군 최적 운영방안을 제공할 수 있도록 위험도 평가기준을 목적함수 및 제약조건에 반영한 hedging rule을 혼합정수계획법(MIP, Mixed Integer Programming)으로 구성하고 이에 대한 이행도를 분석함으로써 기존의 용수공급 신뢰도에 중점을 두었던 저수지군 최적 운영 분석기법을 개선하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 한강수계 5개 저수지(소양강댐, 충주댐, 화천댐, 청평댐, 팔당댐)군을 대상으로 수계관리를 위한 모형을 구축하였으며, 한강수계 내에 총 8개의 가상 제어지점을 구성하여 댐 하류 제어지점에서의 물 부족에 대해 위험도를 평가하였으며, 개발된 hedging rule의 적정성을 검증하기 위하여 2개의 유입량 계열('93. 1월~'97. 12월, '99. 1월~'03. 12월)에 대하여 적용 검토하였다. 팔당댐 하류 제어지점의 월별 최소유량을 비교하면 '93. 1월~'97. 12월의 모의기간에서는 hedging rule 적용 시 $317.5{\times}10^6m^3$으로 단독운영의 $310.6{\times}10^6m^3$, 연계운영의 $56.3{\times}10^6m^3$ 보다 많은 유량을 보였으며, '99. 1월~'03. 12월의모의기간에서도 hedging rule 적용시 $243.7{\times}10^6m^3$ 으로 단독운영의 $204.2{\times}10^6m^3$, 연계운영의 $111.2{\times}10^6m^3$에 비해 최소 유량이 많은 것을 확인하였으며, 이는 제안한 hedging rule에 의해 하류 제어지점에서의 최대 물 부족량이 감소하는 결과를 보여주고 있다.

This study suggests the hedging rule of MIP (Mixed Integer Programing) in counting the risk evaluation criteria of the objective function and constraints in order to provide the optimum operating rule in reservoir system as constraining water shortage as much as possible which may happen in the downstream control point of water supply in the aspect of water system management. The proposed model is applied to the Han-river reservoir system for two testing periods (Case I: Jan. 1993~Dec. 1997, Case II: Jan. 1999~Dec. 2003). The model based on the hedging rule with trigger volume, estimated in this study shows that in Case I, the monthly minimum discharge was $310.6{\times}10^6m^3$ in the single operation, $56.3{\times}10^6m^3$ in the joint operation, and $317.5{\times}10^6m^3$ in the hedging rule and also, in Case II, the monthly minimum discharge was found to be $204.2{\times}10^6m^3$ in the single operation, $111.2{\times}10^6m^3$ in the joint operation, and $243.7{\times}10^6m^3$ in the hedging rule. In conclusion, the hedging rule, proposed in this study can decrease vulnerability while guarantees reliability and resiliency.

키워드

참고문헌

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피인용 문헌

  1. Reservoir Operations of Hapcheon Dam Applying a Discrete Hedging Rule and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction to Cope With Droughts vol.16, pp.1, 2016, https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2016.16.1.93