Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Development and Assessment of Hedging Rule for Han River Reservoir System Operation against Severe Drought

한강수계 저수지군의 갈수대응 운영을 위한 Hedging Rule의 개발과 적용성 평가

  • Kim, Jeong Yup (Geum River Flood Control Office) ;
  • Park, Myung Ky (Southeast Asia Dept., Korea Water Resources Corporation) ;
  • Lee, Gi Ha (Dept. of Construction and Disaster Prevention Eng., Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Jung, Kwan Sue (Dept. of Civil Engrg., Chungnam National Univ.)
  • 김정엽 (금강홍수통제소) ;
  • 박명기 (한국수자원공사 동남아사업단) ;
  • 이기하 (경북대학교 건설방재공학부) ;
  • 정관수 (충남대학교 공과대학 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2014.01.01
  • Accepted : 2014.09.22
  • Published : 2014.10.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study suggests the hedging rule of MIP (Mixed Integer Programing) in counting the risk evaluation criteria of the objective function and constraints in order to provide the optimum operating rule in reservoir system as constraining water shortage as much as possible which may happen in the downstream control point of water supply in the aspect of water system management. The proposed model is applied to the Han-river reservoir system for two testing periods (Case I: Jan. 1993~Dec. 1997, Case II: Jan. 1999~Dec. 2003). The model based on the hedging rule with trigger volume, estimated in this study shows that in Case I, the monthly minimum discharge was $310.6{\times}10^6m^3$ in the single operation, $56.3{\times}10^6m^3$ in the joint operation, and $317.5{\times}10^6m^3$ in the hedging rule and also, in Case II, the monthly minimum discharge was found to be $204.2{\times}10^6m^3$ in the single operation, $111.2{\times}10^6m^3$ in the joint operation, and $243.7{\times}10^6m^3$ in the hedging rule. In conclusion, the hedging rule, proposed in this study can decrease vulnerability while guarantees reliability and resiliency.

본 연구는 수계관리 측면에서 물 공급의 기준이 되는 하류 제어지점에서 발생할 수 있는 물 부족을 최소 허용하면서 저수지군 최적 운영방안을 제공할 수 있도록 위험도 평가기준을 목적함수 및 제약조건에 반영한 hedging rule을 혼합정수계획법(MIP, Mixed Integer Programming)으로 구성하고 이에 대한 이행도를 분석함으로써 기존의 용수공급 신뢰도에 중점을 두었던 저수지군 최적 운영 분석기법을 개선하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 한강수계 5개 저수지(소양강댐, 충주댐, 화천댐, 청평댐, 팔당댐)군을 대상으로 수계관리를 위한 모형을 구축하였으며, 한강수계 내에 총 8개의 가상 제어지점을 구성하여 댐 하류 제어지점에서의 물 부족에 대해 위험도를 평가하였으며, 개발된 hedging rule의 적정성을 검증하기 위하여 2개의 유입량 계열('93. 1월~'97. 12월, '99. 1월~'03. 12월)에 대하여 적용 검토하였다. 팔당댐 하류 제어지점의 월별 최소유량을 비교하면 '93. 1월~'97. 12월의 모의기간에서는 hedging rule 적용 시 $317.5{\times}10^6m^3$으로 단독운영의 $310.6{\times}10^6m^3$, 연계운영의 $56.3{\times}10^6m^3$ 보다 많은 유량을 보였으며, '99. 1월~'03. 12월의모의기간에서도 hedging rule 적용시 $243.7{\times}10^6m^3$ 으로 단독운영의 $204.2{\times}10^6m^3$, 연계운영의 $111.2{\times}10^6m^3$에 비해 최소 유량이 많은 것을 확인하였으며, 이는 제안한 hedging rule에 의해 하류 제어지점에서의 최대 물 부족량이 감소하는 결과를 보여주고 있다.

Keywords

References

  1. Cancelliere, A., Ancarani, A., and Rossi, G. (1998). "Susceptibility of water supply reservoirs to drought conditions." Journal ofHydrologic Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 140-148. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1998)3:2(140)
  2. Eum, H.I., and Kim, Y.O. (2007). "S An Optimal Operational Policy for Drought Management Using Sampling SDP Combined with Hedging Rule." Proceedings of Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 2007, No. 10, pp. 1368-1371.
  3. Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J.R., and Loucks, D.P. (1982). "Reliability, resilience and vulnerability criteria for water resources system performance evaluation." Water Resources Research, AGU, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 14-20. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i001p00014
  4. ILOG (2002). ILOG CPLEX 9.0 User's Manual, ILOG Company.
  5. Kim, M.G., Kim, J.H., and Kim, S.K. (2008). "Determination of Weight Coefficients of Multiple Objective Reservoir Operation Problem Considering Inflow Variation." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.1.001
  6. Kim, S.K. (1988). "Outline of Reservoir Operation." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 16-24.
  7. Kim, S.K., and Park, Y.J. (1998). "A Mathematical Model for Coordinated Multiple Reservoir Operation." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 31, No. 6, pp. 779-793.
  8. K-Water (2010). Manual for Multi-purpose Dam Management.
  9. Kwon, O.H. (1988). "Prevailing Issues on Reservoir Operation in Korea." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 25-30.
  10. Loucks, D.P., Stedinger, J.R., and Haith, D.A. (1981). Water Resources Systems Planning and Analysis. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
  11. Lund, J.R., and Reed, R.U. (1995). "Drought water rationing and transferable rations." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, Vol. 121, No. 6, pp. 429-437. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1995)121:6(429)
  12. Maass, A., Hufschmidt, M.M., Dorfman, R., Thomas, Jr., H.A., Marglin, S.A., and Fair, G.M. (1962). Design of Water Resource System. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass.
  13. Moy, W.S., Cohon, J., and Revelle, C.S. (1986). "A programming model for analysis of the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water supply reservoir." Water Resources Research, AGU, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 489-498. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR022i004p00489
  14. Neelakantan, T.R., and Pundarikanthan, N.V. (1999). "Heding Rule Optimisation for Water Supply Reservoirs System." Water Resources Management, Springer, Vol. 13, No. 6, pp. 409-426 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008157316584
  15. Park, M.K. (2001). Optimal Reservoir System Operation Policy Using Risk Evaluation Criteria, Ph.D. dissertation, Chungnam National University.
  16. Park, M.K., Kim, J.H., and Jung, K.S. (2002). "Development of Hedging Rule for Drought Management Policy Reflecting Risk Performance Criteria of Single Reservoir System." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 35, No. 5, pp. 501-510. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2002.35.5.501
  17. Ryu, K.H., Jung, K.H., Lee, J.H., and Kim, J.H. (2009). "Optimization of Multi-reservoir Operation with a Hedging Rule: Case Study of the Han River Basin." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 42, No. 8, pp. 643-657. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.8.643
  18. Shih, J.S., and Revelle, C.S. (1994). "Water supply operations during drought: continuous hedging rule." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, Vol. 120, No. 5, pp. 613-629. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1994)120:5(613)
  19. Shih, J.S., and Revelle, C.S. (1995). "Water supply operations during drought: a discrete hedging rule." European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 82, pp. 163-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(93)E0237-R
  20. Srinivasan, K., Neelakantan, T.R., Shyam Narayan, P., and Nagarajukumar, C. (1999). "Mixed-Integer programming model for reservoir performance optimization." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, Vol. 125, No. 5, pp. 298-301. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1999)125:5(298)
  21. Srinivasan, K., and Phillpose, M.C. (1998). "Effect of hedging on over-year reservoir performance." Water Resources Management, KAP, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 95-120. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007936115706
  22. Stedinger, J.R. (1984). "The performance of LDR models for preliminary design and reservoir operation." Water Resources Research, AGU, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 215-224. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR020i002p00215
  23. Tu, M.-Y., Hsu, N.-S., Tsai, F.T-C., and Yeh W.W.-G. (2008). "Optimization of hedging rules for reservoir operations." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, Vol. 134, No. 1, pp. 3-13. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2008)134:1(3)
  24. Tu, M.-Y., Hsu, N.-S., and Yeh, W.W.-G. (2003). "Optimization of reservoir management and operation with hedging rules." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, Vol. 129, No. 2, pp. 86-97. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2003)129:2(86)
  25. Water Science and Technology Board (1986). Drought Management and Its Impact on Public Water Systems. National Academy Press, Washingtion, D.C.
  26. Xu, Z., Jinno, K., Kawamura, A., Takesaki, S., and Ito, K. (1998). "Performance risk analysis for Fukuoka water supply system." Water Resources Management, KAP, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 13-30. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007951806144

Cited by

  1. Reservoir Operations of Hapcheon Dam Applying a Discrete Hedging Rule and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction to Cope With Droughts vol.16, pp.1, 2016, https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2016.16.1.93