Nuclear Engineering and Technology

  • 제46권4호
  • /
  • Pages.481-488
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  • 2014
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  • 1738-5733(pISSN)
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  • 2234-358X(eISSN)
한국원자력학회 (Korean Nuclear Society)
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ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION METHOD BY COMPARING MONTE-CARLO METHOD AND WILKS' FORMULA

  • Lee, Seung Wook (Thermal Hydraulics Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) ;
  • Chung, Bub Dong (Thermal Hydraulics Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) ;
  • Bang, Young-Seok (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) ;
  • Bae, Sung Won (Thermal Hydraulics Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute)
  • 투고 : 2013.06.07
  • 심사 : 2014.03.19
  • 발행 : 2014.08.25
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초록

An analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to LBLOCA using the Monte-Carlo calculation has been performed and compared with the tolerance level determined by the Wilks' formula. The uncertainty range and distribution of each input parameter associated with the LOCA phenomena were determined based on previous PIRT results and documentation during the BEMUSE project. Calulations were conducted on 3,500 cases within a 2-week CPU time on a 14-PC cluster system. The Monte-Carlo exercise shows that the 95% upper limit PCT value can be obtained well, with a 95% confidence level using the Wilks' formula, although we have to endure a 5% risk of PCT under-prediction. The results also show that the statistical fluctuation of the limit value using Wilks' first-order is as large as the uncertainty value itself. It is therefore desirable to increase the order of the Wilks' formula to be higher than the second-order to estimate the reliable safety margin of the design features. It is also shown that, with its ever increasing computational capability, the Monte-Carlo method is accessible for a nuclear power plant safety analysis within a realistic time frame.

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피인용 문헌

  1. Assessment study about the risk of Wilks’ formula for uncertainty quantification of design extension condition scenarios in prototype Gen-IV sodium fast reactor vol.55, pp.7, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2018.1435317